Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport : What Economic Regulators Should Know, and Why
Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology, and software, should allow much better forecasting than t...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693062/forecasting-demand-privatized-transport-economic-regulators-know http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19786 |
| Summary: | Forecasting has long been a challenge,
and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the
analytical instruments and data processing capabilities
available through the latest technology, and software,
should allow much better forecasting than transport
ministries, or regulatory agencies typically observe.
Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More
attention is paid to risk under privatization, than when
investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be
able to judge traffic studies done by operators, and to
learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many
governments, and regulators avoid good demand, modeling out
of lack of conviction that theory, and models can do better
than the "old hands" of the sector. This is
dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business.
For projects amounting to investments of $ 100-200 million,
a cost of $ 100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a
reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting
firms are willing to sell guarantees, or insurance with
their forecasts, to cover significant gaps between
forecasts, and reality. |
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