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Time Predictions : Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life.

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Halkjelsvik, Torleif.
Other Authors: Jørgensen, Magne.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2018.
Edition:1st ed.
Series:Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series
Subjects:
Electronic books.
Online Access:Click to View
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Foreword
  • Preface
  • Contents
  • 1 Introduction
  • 1.1 A Prediction Success
  • 1.2 Prediction Disasters
  • References
  • 2 How We Predict Time Usage
  • 2.1 Mental Time Travel
  • 2.2 How Did You Make that Prediction?
  • 2.3 Time Predictions Are Everywhere
  • 2.4 How Good Are We at Predicting Time?
  • References
  • 3 Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future
  • 3.1 Precisely Wrong or Roughly Right?
  • 3.2 Communication of Time Predictions
  • 3.3 Probability-Based Time Predictions
  • 3.4 Right-Skewed Time Distributions
  • 3.5 Relearning to Add: 2 + 2 Is Usually More Than 4
  • 3.6 How to Predict the Mean Time Usage
  • 3.7 How Time Predictions Affect Performance
  • References
  • 4 Overoptimistic Predictions
  • 4.1 Optimism, Overoptimism, and Overoptimistic Predictions
  • 4.2 The Benefits of Overoptimism
  • 4.3 The Desire to Control Time
  • 4.4 Motivation to Make Accurate Time Usage Predictions
  • 4.5 Selection Bias
  • 4.6 Deception
  • 4.7 Who Makes the Most Realistic Time Predictions?
  • References
  • 5 Time Prediction Biases
  • 5.1 The Team Scaling Fallacy
  • 5.2 Anchoring
  • 5.3 Sequence Effects
  • 5.4 Format Effects
  • 5.5 The Magnitude Effect
  • 5.6 Length of Task Description
  • 5.7 The Time Unit Effect
  • References
  • 6 Uncertainty of Time Predictions
  • 6.1 Why Are We Overconfident?
  • 6.2 What Can We Do to Avoid Overconfidence?
  • 6.2.1 The Use of Alternative Interval Prediction Formats
  • 6.2.2 Learning from Accuracy Feedback
  • References
  • 7 Time Prediction Methods and Principles
  • 7.1 Unpacking and Decomposition
  • 7.2 Analogies
  • 7.3 Relative Predictions
  • 7.4 Time Prediction Models
  • 7.5 Consider Alternative Futures
  • 7.6 Combinations of Time Predictions
  • 7.7 Let Other People Make the Prediction?
  • 7.8 Removing Irrelevant and Misleading Information.
  • 7.9 From Fibonacci to T-Shirt Sizes: Time Predictions Using Alternative Scales
  • References
  • 8 Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation
  • References
  • 9 How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.

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