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MiAaPQ |
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231204s2018 xx o ||||0 eng d |
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|a 9783319749532
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|z 9783319749525
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|a (MiAaPQ)EBC5579430
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|a (Au-PeEL)EBL5579430
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|a (OCoLC)1066194561
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|a MiAaPQ
|b eng
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|c MiAaPQ
|d MiAaPQ
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|a HB131-147
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|a Halkjelsvik, Torleif.
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|a Time Predictions :
|b Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life.
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|a 1st ed.
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| 264 |
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|a Cham :
|b Springer International Publishing AG,
|c 2018.
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| 264 |
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|c ©2018.
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| 300 |
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|a 1 online resource (117 pages)
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| 336 |
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|a text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
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| 337 |
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|a computer
|b c
|2 rdamedia
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| 338 |
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|a online resource
|b cr
|2 rdacarrier
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| 490 |
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|a Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series ;
|v v.5
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|a Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Contents -- 1 Introduction -- 1.1 A Prediction Success -- 1.2 Prediction Disasters -- References -- 2 How We Predict Time Usage -- 2.1 Mental Time Travel -- 2.2 How Did You Make that Prediction? -- 2.3 Time Predictions Are Everywhere -- 2.4 How Good Are We at Predicting Time? -- References -- 3 Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future -- 3.1 Precisely Wrong or Roughly Right? -- 3.2 Communication of Time Predictions -- 3.3 Probability-Based Time Predictions -- 3.4 Right-Skewed Time Distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to Add: 2 + 2 Is Usually More Than 4 -- 3.6 How to Predict the Mean Time Usage -- 3.7 How Time Predictions Affect Performance -- References -- 4 Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.1 Optimism, Overoptimism, and Overoptimistic Predictions -- 4.2 The Benefits of Overoptimism -- 4.3 The Desire to Control Time -- 4.4 Motivation to Make Accurate Time Usage Predictions -- 4.5 Selection Bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who Makes the Most Realistic Time Predictions? -- References -- 5 Time Prediction Biases -- 5.1 The Team Scaling Fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence Effects -- 5.4 Format Effects -- 5.5 The Magnitude Effect -- 5.6 Length of Task Description -- 5.7 The Time Unit Effect -- References -- 6 Uncertainty of Time Predictions -- 6.1 Why Are We Overconfident? -- 6.2 What Can We Do to Avoid Overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The Use of Alternative Interval Prediction Formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from Accuracy Feedback -- References -- 7 Time Prediction Methods and Principles -- 7.1 Unpacking and Decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative Predictions -- 7.4 Time Prediction Models -- 7.5 Consider Alternative Futures -- 7.6 Combinations of Time Predictions -- 7.7 Let Other People Make the Prediction? -- 7.8 Removing Irrelevant and Misleading Information.
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|a 7.9 From Fibonacci to T-Shirt Sizes: Time Predictions Using Alternative Scales -- References -- 8 Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- References -- 9 How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.
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| 588 |
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|a Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.
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| 590 |
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|a Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, 2023. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries.
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| 655 |
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4 |
|a Electronic books.
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Jørgensen, Magne.
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| 776 |
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|i Print version:
|a Halkjelsvik, Torleif
|t Time Predictions
|d Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2018
|z 9783319749525
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| 797 |
2 |
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|a ProQuest (Firm)
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| 830 |
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0 |
|a Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing Series
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| 856 |
4 |
0 |
|u https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/matrademy/detail.action?docID=5579430
|z Click to View
|
