| Summary: | Uses data from World Development Indicators, UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Data, and World Bank state fragility assessments to study the development consequences and relationship of internal armed conflict and state fragility in terms of seven of the Millennium Development Goals. Methods used to analyze these relationships include averages by conflict and fragility status; cross-sectional regression analyses of change in each indicator; fixed-effects regression analyses of the impact on each indicator for each five-year period 1965-2009; as well as occasional panel time series models and matching techniques. These analyses leave no doubt that conflict, fragility, and poor development outcomes are closely related, especially in the developing countries of Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the difficulty of analyzing the effect of conflict on a set of indicators that are also causally related to the onset of conflict, conflict and fragility are found at least to exacerbate these pre-existing conditions.
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