Implications of the growth of China and India for the other Asian giant : Russia
Continuing rapid growth of China and India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy are explored by examining a basel...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091013154649 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4267 |
| Summary: | Continuing rapid growth of China and
India can be expected to raise incomes in Russia, but also
to put adjustment pressure on Russian firms. The impacts of
the rapid growth of China and India on the Russian economy
are explored by examining a baseline projection using a
global general equilibrium model, and then assessing the
implications of higher-than-expected growth in China and
India. The authors find that a major source of benefits to
Russia is likely to be terms-of-trade improvements
associated with higher energy prices - a quite different
channel of effect from that for many developing countries
that benefit primarily through expanded opportunities to
trade directly with these emerging giants. Taking into
account the likely improvements in the quality and variety
of exports from China and India, the gains to Russia
increase substantially. The expansion of the energy sector
and the contraction of manufacturing and services are a sign
of a Dutch disease effect that will increase the importance
of policies to encourage adaptation to the changing world environment. |
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