Description: Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis

Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis

The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors:	Mohapatra, Sanket, Ratha, Dilip
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES ASSETS AVERAGE REMITTANCE BANK DEPOSITS BILATERAL FLOWS BLACK MARKET BLACK MARKET EXCHANGE RATES BRAIN DRAIN CAPITA INCOME CAPITAL FLOWS CREDIT RATING CREDIT RATING AGENCIES CREDITWORTHINESS CURRENT ACCOUNT CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITION DATA ON REMITTANCES DEBT DEBT FLOWS DEBT SUSTAINABILITY DEPOSITS DEPRECIATION DESTINATION COUNTRY DETERMINANTS OF REMITTANCES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT IMPACT OF REMITTANCES DIASPORA ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ECONOMIC CRISIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC DOWNTURN ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS ECONOMIC GROWTH EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EMIGRANT REMITTANCES EQUITY FLOWS EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS EXPENDITURES EXPLANATORY VARIABLES FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL SERVICES FIXED SHARE FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FORMAL FINANCIAL SERVICES FUTURE PROSPECTS FUTURE REMITTANCES GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL EXCHANGE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT HIGH-INCOME COUNTRIES HIGH-INCOME COUNTRY HOME COUNTRY HOST COUNTRIES HOST COUNTRY IMPORTANCE OF REMITTANCES INCOME INCOME GROUP INCOME LEVEL INCOME LEVELS INCOMES INFORMAL CHANNELS INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL BANKS INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MIGRANT WORKERS INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES INTERNATIONAL TRADE KEY RISK KEY RISK FACTOR LOCAL CURRENCY LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS MARKET PLAYERS MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES MIGRANT REMITTANCES MIGRANTS MIGRATION POLICY MONETARY FUND NATURAL DISASTER NATURAL DISASTERS NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATES NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT OUTPUT PARALLEL MARKET PORTFOLIO POST-CRISIS PERIOD POVERTY REDUCTION PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOWS QUOTAS RECIPIENT COUNTRIES RECIPIENT HOUSEHOLDS REMITTANCE REMITTANCE CHANNELS REMITTANCE COSTS REMITTANCE FLOWS REMITTANCE INFLOWS REMITTANCE OUTFLOWS REMITTANCE RECEIPTS REMITTANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT RETURN RETURN MIGRATION RETURNS RISK FACTOR ROLE OF REMITTANCES SAVINGS SEND MONEY SEND REMITTANCES SKILLED MIGRANTS SOVEREIGN RATINGS STOCK DATA STOCKS TOTAL AMOUNT OF REMITTANCES TRANSACTION TRANSACTION COSTS TRANSFER COSTS VALUE OF REMITTANCES VOLATILITY VOLATILITY OF CAPITAL WEIGHTS WORKER REMITTANCES
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101230132625 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3996

Description
Summary:	The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

Forecasting Migrant Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis

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