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Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries : How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India t...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Delavande, Adeline, Giné, Xavier, McKenzie, David
Language:English
Published: 2012
Subjects:
BEANS
BIASES
CALCULATION
CARROTS
CENTRAL TENDENCY
COGNITION
COMPUTERS
DESCRIPTION
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC STATISTICS
FUTURE RESEARCH
FUTURE STUDIES
INCOME
LITERACY
OBJECTS
ORDERING
ORDERINGS
PRECISION
PROBABILITIES
PROBABILITY
READING
RESEARCHER
RESEARCHERS
SALES
SAMPLE SIZE
SOCIAL SCIENCES
SPREAD
STANDARD DEVIATION
STANDARD DEVIATIONS
STANDARD ERRORS
TIME SERIES
WEB
YIELDS
Online Access:http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101025150351
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3940
Description
Summary:Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.

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