Description: Egypt beyond the Crisis : Medium-Term Challenges for Sustained Growth

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Egypt beyond the Crisis : Medium-Term Challenges for Sustained Growth

The paper analyzes the impact of the recent global crisis in the context of the previous two decades' growth and capital flows. Growth decomposition exercises show that Egyptian growth is driven mostly by capital accumulation. To estimate the...

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Main Authors:	Herrera, Santiago, Selim, Hoda, Youssef, Hoda, Zaki, Chahir
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	ACCESS TO FINANCE ACCOUNTING AGGREGATE DEMAND AGRICULTURE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BALANCE SHEETS BANK HOLDINGS BANK POLICY BANK PORTFOLIOS BANKING SECTOR BASIS POINTS BENCHMARK BONDS BOOM-BUST CYCLE BOOM-BUST CYCLES BUDGET DEFICIT BUSINESS CYCLE BUSINESS CYCLES CAPITAL ACCUMULATION CAPITAL FLOWS CAPITAL INFLOW CAPITAL INFLOWS CAPITAL INVESTMENT CAPITAL MARKETS CAPITAL OUTFLOW CAPITAL OUTFLOWS CAPITAL SHARE CAPITAL SHARES CAPITAL STOCK CAPITAL STOCKS CENTRAL BANK COMMERCIAL BANKS COMMODITY PRICES CONSUMER PROTECTION CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING CORRUPTION CURRENCY CURRENCY ASSETS CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT DEBT DEBT HOLDINGS DEBT RATIO DEBT RATIOS DEBT REDUCTION DEBT SERVICE DEBT SERVICING DEFICIT FINANCING DEFICITS DEMAND FOR CREDIT DEPOSIT DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS DEVELOPMENT POLICY DOMESTIC CREDIT DOMESTIC DEBT DOMESTIC DEBT MARKETS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ECONOMIC REFORM ECONOMIC REFORMS ECONOMIC RESEARCH ECONOMIC SECTORS ECONOMIC VALUE ELASTICITY ELASTICITY OF DEMAND EMERGING ECONOMIES EMERGING MARKET EMERGING MARKETS EXCESS LIQUIDITY EXCHANGE RATE EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURES EXPORT GROWTH EXPORTER EXPORTS EXTERNAL CAPITAL EXTERNAL DEBT FEDERAL RESERVE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK FINANCIAL CRISES FINANCIAL CRISIS FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL FLOWS FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION FINANCIAL REFORMS FINANCIAL SECTOR FINANCIAL STRESS FINANCIAL SYSTEM FISCAL DEFICIT FISCAL DEFICITS FISCAL DISCIPLINE FISCAL POLICY FIXED CAPITAL FORECASTS FOREIGN CURRENCY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FOREIGN EXCHANGE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET FREE TRADE GDP GDP PER CAPITA GLOBAL ECONOMY GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY GOVERNMENT SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION GROWTH MODELS GROWTH RATE HOLDINGS HOLDINGS OF GOVERNMENT SECURITIES HOUSEHOLD INCOME HUMAN CAPITAL HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INCOME LEVELS INDEBTEDNESS INFLATION INFLATIONARY PRESSURES INSURANCE INTEREST RATE INTEREST RATES INTERNATIONAL BANK INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL FINANCE INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS INTERNATIONAL TRADE INVENTORIES INVESTMENT CAPITAL INVESTMENT CLIMATE INVESTOR BASE JOB CREATION LABOR MARKET LACK OF ACCESS LACK OF COMPETITION LENDING INTEREST RATE LEVEL OF INTEREST RATES LIMITED ACCESS LIQUIDITY LOCAL CURRENCY LONG TERM CAPITAL LONG-TERM COST M2 MACROECONOMICS MARGINAL PRODUCT MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY MARKET CONCENTRATION MARKET DETERMINATION MARKETABLE DEBT MARKETABLE SECURITIES MATURITIES MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES MONETARY FUND NATIONAL INCOME NATIONAL SAVINGS NET EXPORTS OUTPUT LOSS OUTPUT LOSSES PHYSICAL CAPITAL POLICY RESPONSES POLITICAL ECONOMY PORTFOLIO PRIVATE CAPITAL PRIVATE INVESTMENT PRIVATE INVESTMENTS PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT PRODUCTION COSTS PRODUCTION FUNCTION PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH PUBLIC BANKS PUBLIC DEBT PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT PUBLIC FINANCES PUBLIC INVESTMENT PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT PUBLIC SPENDING PURCHASING POWER RATE OF RETURN RATES OF RETURN REAL EXCHANGE RATE REAL GDP REAL INTEREST REAL INTEREST RATES RECESSION RECESSIONS REMITTANCES RESERVE RESERVE REQUIREMENT RESERVE REQUIREMENTS RESERVES RETURNS RISK AVERSION SAFETY NETS SAVINGS SAVINGS RATE SAVINGS RATES SOCIAL WELFARE STOCK MARKET STOCKS STRUCTURAL CHANGE T-BILL T-BILLS T-BONDS TAX TAX EXEMPTIONS TAX RATES TAXATION TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH TRADE BALANCE TRADE LIBERALIZATION TRADE POLICY TRADING TROUGH UNDERESTIMATES UNEMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES VALUE ADDED VARIABLE RATE WAGES WELFARE BENEFITS
Online Access:	http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20101020092638 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3934

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Summary:	The paper analyzes the impact of the recent global crisis in the context of the previous two decades' growth and capital flows. Growth decomposition exercises show that Egyptian growth is driven mostly by capital accumulation. To estimate the share of labor in national income, the analysis adjusts the national accounts statistics to include the compensation of self-employed and non-paid family workers. Still, the share of labor, about 30 percent, is significantly lower than previously estimated. The authors estimate the output costs of the current crisis by comparing the output trajectory that would have prevailed without the crisis with the observed and revised gross domestic product projections for the medium term. The fall in private investment was the main driver of the output cost. Even if private investment recovers its pre-crisis levels, there is a permanent loss in gross domestic product per capita of about 2 percent with respect to the scenario without the crisis. The paper shows how the shock to investment is magnified due to the capital-intensive nature of the Egyptian economy: if the economy had the traditionally-used share of labor in income (40 percent), the output loss would have been reduced by half.