Rising Incomes, Transport Demand, and Sector Decarbonization
As income increases, people become more mobile and spend more on carbon-intensive transport goods and services. This paper estimates income elasticities of transport consumption using household survey data for 18 countries, which are then used to s...
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| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099901304192236433/IDU0d366435d0a79404645080fe01146ee8b1853 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37330 |
| Summary: | As income increases, people become
more mobile and spend more on carbon-intensive transport
goods and services. This paper estimates income elasticities
of transport consumption using household survey data for 18
countries, which are then used to simulate transport carbon
footprint and carbon inequality by 2035. It first shows that
in low- and middle-income countries (i) many households
mostly walk and do not use transport services, (ii) income
elasticity of private transport expenditure is high, and
(iii) many households do not own a car. Both results suggest
a future steep growth of emissions as incomes expand. Using
estimates of income elasticities of vehicle ownership and
vehicle use, the paper shows that carbon footprint will
increase on average by 52 percent for these countries as
incomes reach their 2035 levels. Finally, it decomposes
carbon dioxide emissions along the within-country income
distribution. Car ownership and carbon dioxide emissions are
highly concentrated at the top. By 2035, carbon inequality
will increase in some countries but decrease in others. Such
results can be used for modeling future distributional
implications of climate and energy policies. |
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