Near-Real-Time Welfare and Livelihood Impacts of an Active Civil War : Evidence from Ethiopia
Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which spans several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides fresh eviden...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099237104142234870/IDU0852cd3970e8df04e170b3430d96d0e0c6179 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37309 |
| Summary: | Ethiopia is currently embroiled in a
large-scale civil war that has continued for more than a
year. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey data, which
spans several months before and after the outbreak of the
war, this paper provides fresh evidence on the ex durante
impacts of the conflict on the food security and livelihood
activities of affected households. The analysis uses
difference-in-differences estimation to compare trends in
the outcomes of interest across affected and unaffected
regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of
the civil war. The findings show that seven months into the
conflict, the outbreak of the civil war increased the
probability of moderate to severe food insecurity by 38
percentage points. Using the Armed Conflict Location and
Event Data on households’ exposure to violent conflict, the
analysis shows that exposure to one additional battle leads
to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of
moderate to severe food insecurity. The conflict has reduced
households’ access to food through supply chain disruptions
while also curtailing non-farm livelihood activities.
Non-farm and wage-related activities have been the most
affected by the conflict, while farming activities have been
relatively more resilient. Similarly, economic activities in
urban areas have been much more affected than those in rural
areas. These substantial impact estimates, which are likely
to be underestimates of the true average effects on the
population, constitute novel evidence of the near-real-time
impacts of an ongoing civil conflict, providing direct
evidence of how violent conflict disrupts the functioning of
market supply chains and livelihoods activities. The paper
highlights the potential of phone surveys to monitor active
and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where
conventional data sources are not immediately available. |
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