A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel
Do Sahelian countries face specific risks of water-related conflict Sahelian countries face growing fragility and climate challenges—especially those belonging to the Group of Five Sahel States (known as the G5 Sahel)—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Maur...
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| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/693481634066645154/A-Hard-Rains-a-Gonna-Fall-New-Insights-on-Water-Security-and-Fragility-in-the-Sahel http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36391 |
| Summary: | Do Sahelian countries face specific
risks of water-related conflict Sahelian countries face
growing fragility and climate challenges—especially those
belonging to the Group of Five Sahel States (known as the G5
Sahel)—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. This
study examines how their relation to water availability and
irrigation infrastructure factors in. It documents that the
G5 Sahel countries, given their high baseline water scarcity
and state fragility, face a higher risk of conflict over
water resources compared to the rest of Africa. This is
demonstrated through empirical analyses using geospatial
data and exploiting (i) climate-induced variation in water
availability, and (ii) an event study analysis of conflict
trends, which sharply increased post-2010 in the region
following the Arab Spring and the rise of the Boko Haram.
Irrigated areas are found to be important for buffering
against weather shocks but are also more prone to targeting
during conflict events compared to non-irrigated regions.
The evidence suggests that this reflects increased
competition for scarce (fertile) resources between state and
rebel groups on this climate frontier with a well-documented
history of agropastoral conflict. Other regions of Africa
are not found to experience similar conflict related to
water resources. These findings are especially pertinent for
informing projects and policy interventions in fragile
countries as post-COVID-19 recovery and climate action plans
are rolled out. |
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