Policy Choices Can Help Keep 4G and 5G Universal Broadband Affordable
The United Nations Broadband Commission has committed the international community to accelerate universal broadband, but the cost of meeting these objectives in the context of rapid technological change are not well understood. Using scenario analysis, this paper compares the global cost-effect...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/658521614715617195/Policy-Choices-Can-Help-Keep-4G-and-5G-Universal-Broadband-Affordable http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35212 |
| Summary: | The United Nations Broadband Commission has committed
the international community to accelerate universal
broadband, but the cost of meeting these objectives in the
context of rapid technological change are not well understood.
Using scenario analysis, this paper compares the
global cost-effectiveness of different infrastructure strategies
for the developing world to achieve universal 4G or 5G
mobile broadband. Utilizing remote sensing and demand
forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for
eight representative low- and middle-income countries
(Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Pakistan, Albania, Peru,
and Mexico), which provide the basis for aggregation to
the global level. The cost of meeting UN Broadband Commission
targets across the developing world is estimated
at $1.6-1.7 trillion over the next decade, approximately 0.5-0.6% of annual gross domestic product for the developing
world over the next decade. However, by creating a
favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring
down these costs by as much as three-quarters – to US$0.5
trillion (around 0.15 percent of annual gross domestic product)
– and largely avoid the need for public subsidies. While
4G technology remains somewhat more cost-effective at the
global scale, 5G NSA can sometimes prove less costly at
the national level, particularly for countries with relatively
low existing coverage of 4G technologies, and a tendency
to be capacity-constrained in terms of demand. Providing
that governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal
and regulatory regimes that are conducive to lowering costs,
universal broadband may be within reach of most developing
countries over the next decade. |
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