Tunisia – Skills Development for Employment : The Role of Technical and Vocational Education and Training
Tunisia is expected to enter a recession in 2020 as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the slowdown in production due to no demand, and decline in tourism. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged only 1.8 percent per year in 201...
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| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/465581593566209488/Tunisia-Skills-Development-for-Employment-The-Role-of-Technical-and-Vocational-Education-and-Training http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34068 |
| Summary: | Tunisia is expected to enter a recession
in 2020 as a result of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic,
the slowdown in production due to no demand, and decline in
tourism. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged only
1.8 percent per year in 2011–2018 compared to 4 percent in
2001-2005 and 4.5 percent in 2006–2010. Despite a good
performance of tradable services, growth slowed down from
2.7 percent in 2018 to 1 percent in 2019. 1 This slowdown
may be attributed to several factors, including the death of
President Essebsi, presidential and parliamentary elections,
a drop in industrial production, and fall in agricultural
growth. The World Bank estimates that Tunisia’s potential
GDP growth has dropped by 2 to 2.5 percentage points in the
past 15 years due to declining physical and human capital,
persistently low productivity, and lower competitiveness.
The COVID-19 crisis will exacerbate Tunisia’s growth
challenges in the short and possibly medium term. A
Government of Tunisia (GoT) and World Bank study estimates
that a month-long lockdown would reduce growth by 0.9
percentage points in 2020.2 According to the same study, two
to three months of lockdown would adversely affect the
highly exposed export-oriented sectors (mechanical and
electrical products, and textiles), services (tourism,
commerce), and transport sectors and reduce growth by at
least 4 percentage points in 2020. These negative growth
effects will be accentuated by a projected sharp decline in
investment, domestic demand, and productivity as the crisis lengthens. |
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