East Asia Update, March 2006 : Solid Growth, New Challenges
The report stipulates growth in Emerging East Asian countries eased modestly from 7.5 percent in 2004 to 6.8 percent in 2005. The slower pace of activity was most clear in the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs), and in some of the middle income...
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| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2020
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/870121468233360588/Solid-growth-new-challenges http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33507 |
| Summary: | The report stipulates growth in Emerging
East Asian countries eased modestly from 7.5 percent in 2004
to 6.8 percent in 2005. The slower pace of activity was most
clear in the Newly Industrialized Economies (NIEs), and in
some of the middle income economies of South East Asia. But
it was not universal. Growth accelerated in Indonesia and
Vietnam, and continued at very high rates in China. In
addition, while the moderation in activity in the NIEs and
South East Asia occurred in the first part of 2005, activity
was generally rebounding in the latter part of the year.
Indeed growth for 2005 as a whole, generally turned out
higher than we had expected six months ago. The prospects
for 2006 also look reasonably firm, with aggregate regional
growth expected to exceed 6.5 percent for a third year in a
row. Global high tech demand slowed in late 2004 and early
2005, causing a downturn in tech-reliant East Asian export
growth, but then rebounded strongly in the second half of
the year. High oil prices clearly played a large role in
moderating growth in 2005. While the report assumes that oil
prices have now peaked, they are still expected to average
10 percent higher in 2006 than in 2005, so that some of the
adverse impact is still likely to be playing out in 2006.
Nevertheless, the real surprise has been that the highest
real oil prices in more than 25 years did not inflict more
serious economic damage, with growth not falling below 4
percent in any of the main economies of the region. |
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