China/Russia 2030 : Implications for the Horticulture Sector in Central Asia
In China, changing demographics, rising incomes and shifting consumer preferences have resulted in an ever-growing demand for food that is more varied, healthier and of higher quality and this demand is set to persist well into the future. Accordin...
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| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/533791576731672430/Final-Report http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33115 |
| Summary: | In China, changing demographics, rising
incomes and shifting consumer preferences have resulted in
an ever-growing demand for food that is more varied,
healthier and of higher quality and this demand is set to
persist well into the future. According to International
Monetary Fund projections (2019), by 2024, Chinese per
capita gross domestic product (GDP, in current prices) will
increase to dollar 28,450, from dollar 13,130 in 2019, and
the population will increase to 1.5 billion people (United
Nations, 2019). The projected urbanization rate will reach
67 percent by 2030, compared to 56 percent in 2015 (Goh et
al., 2014). The growing number of consumers in China, that
are increasingly more affluent and educated, will continue
shifting their dietary preferences to include more protein,
fruits and vegetables. Central Asian countries are well
placed to be more competitive in satisfying fruit import
demand in the growing Chinese markets and will reap economic
and social development benefits along the way. For
centuries, Central Asia has occupied a position of strategic
importance in trade between the East and the West. The
region’s geographic location, natural resources, untapped
yield potential, and the possibility of greater private
sector investment through policy reform create the necessary
preconditions for the Central Asian countries to increase
their agricultural exports to China. As China places an
important role on meeting its growing food needs on dynamic
agricultural trade and investment cooperation with the
Central Asian countries, this results in significant
opportunities for the region to increase its presence in the
Chinese fruit markets brought by improved infrastructure and
higher cross-border investment. For example, according to
the recent World Bank report (World Bank, 2019), Belt and
Road Initiative transport projects are estimated to increase
trade by up to 9.7 percent. Countries that have a
comparative advantage in time-sensitive sectors, such as
fresh fruits and vegetables, are expected to be the biggest winners. |
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