Mali - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis
Mali remains at moderate risk of external debt distress. This rating is unchanged from the previous analysis and consistent with the May 2018 Staff Report (IMF Country Report/18/141). All the projected external debt burden indicators remain below t...
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/896821570771403858/Mali-Joint-World-Bank-IMF-Debt-Sustainability-Analysis-September-2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32556 |
| Summary: | Mali remains at moderate risk of
external debt distress. This rating is unchanged from the
previous analysis and consistent with the May 2018 Staff
Report (IMF Country Report/18/141). All the projected
external debt burden indicators remain below their
thresholds under the baseline. However, the ratio of the
external debt service to exports exceeds its threshold in
the case of an extreme shock to exports under a customized
scenario that incorporates 2 percentage points of GDP larger
fiscal deficits over 2019 to 2023 than the baseline.1 The
baseline scenario assumes improved fiscal policies and
achievement of the WAEMU fiscal deficit convergence criteria
by 2019. As illustrated in the customized scenario,
continued shortfall in domestic revenue mobilization and a
deterioration in security conditions will result in a
weakened fiscal position and increase the likelihood of debt
distress. Mali’s main challenge continues to be ensuring
macroeconomic stability while protecting social and
investment spending and providing for growing security
spending and large development needs. To maintain debt at
moderate risk rating, it is essential that the authorities
continue their efforts to mobilize domestic revenue and
implement reforms. Debt management capacity should be
strengthened while deepening structural reforms to diversify
the exports base. |
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