Candle in the Wind? Energy System Resilience to Natural Shocks
This study finds that natural shocks -- storms in particular -- are a significant and often leading cause for power supply disruptions. This finding is based on 20 years of high frequency (i.e. daily) data on power outages and climate variables in...
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/951761560795137447/Candle-in-The-Wind-Energy-System-Resilience-to-Natural-Shocks http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31917 |
| Summary: | This study finds that natural shocks --
storms in particular -- are a significant and often leading
cause for power supply disruptions. This finding is based on
20 years of high frequency (i.e. daily) data on power
outages and climate variables in 28 countries -- Bangladesh,
the United States and 26 European countries. More
specifically: (1) Natural shocks are the most important
cause of power outages in developed economies. On average,
they account for more than 50 of annual outage duration in
both the US and Europe. In contrast, natural shocks are
responsible for a small share of outages in Bangladesh,
where disruptions occur on a daily basis for a variety of
reasons. (2) Outages due to natural shocks are found to last
significantly longer than those due to non-natural shocks in
-- e.g. more than 4.5 times in Europe. Reasons include the
challenge of locating wide-spread damages, and the sustained
duration of storms. (3) Several factors can reinforce the
adverse effect of natural shocks on power supply. In the US,
forest cover is shown to significantly increase the risk of
power outages when storms occur. (4) There are significant
differences in network fragility. For instance, wind speeds
above 35 km/h are found to be 12 times more likely to cause
an outage in Bangladesh than in the US. This difference may
be explained by a range of factors, including investments in
infrastructure resilience and maintenance. |
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