No Household Left Behind : Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation
The share of people living in extreme poverty fell from 36 percent in 1990 to 10 percent in 2015 but has continued to increase in many fragile and conflict-affected areas where half of the extreme poor are expected to reside by 2030. These areas ar...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/855831560172245349/No-Household-Left-Behind-Afghanistan-Targeting-the-Ultra-Poor-Impact-Evaluation http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31867 |
| Summary: | The share of people living in extreme
poverty fell from 36 percent in 1990 to 10 percent in 2015
but has continued to increase in many fragile and
conflict-affected areas where half of the extreme poor are
expected to reside by 2030. These areas are also where the
least evidence exists on how to tackle poverty. This paper
investigates whether the Targeting the Ultra Poor program
can lift households out of poverty in a fragile context:
Afghanistan. In 80 villages in Balkh province, 1,219 of the
poorest households were randomly assigned to a treatment or
control group. Women in treatment households received a
one-off "big-push" package, including a transfer
of livestock assets, cash consumption stipend, skills
training, and coaching. One year after the program ended --
two years after assets were transferred -- significant and
large impacts are found across all the primary pre-specified
outcomes: consumption, assets, psychological well-being,
total time spent working, financial inclusion, and
women's empowerment. Per capita consumption increases
by 30 percent (USD 24 purchasing power parity, USD 7 nominal
per month) with respect to the control group, and the share
of households below the national poverty line decreases from
82 percent in the control group to 62 percent in the
treatment group. Using modest assumptions about consumption
impacts, the intervention has an estimated internal rate of
return of 26 percent, excluding non-monetized improvements
in psychological well-being, women's empowerment, and
children's health and education. These findings suggest
that "big-push" interventions can dramatically
reduce poverty in fragile and conflict-affected regions. |
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