Russia Economic Report, November 2018 : Preserving Stability, Doubling Growth, Halving Poverty – How?
Global growth is broadly stable but downside risks from rising trade tensions are increasing.A weakening recovery in trade and manufacturing activities is weighing down global growth. Global goods trade has decelerated more rapidly than expected. U...
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| Language: | English |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2019
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/215711545408416700/Russia-Economic-Report-November-2018-No-40-Preserving-Stability-Doubling-Growth-Halving-Poverty-How http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31158 |
| Summary: | Global growth is broadly stable but
downside risks from rising trade tensions are increasing.A
weakening recovery in trade and manufacturing activities is
weighing down global growth. Global goods trade has
decelerated more rapidly than expected. U.S. tariff s and
the retaliatoryresponses of its trading partners have
affected 2.5 percent of global goods imports. Surveys
ofcompanies in the U.S., China and Japan suggest that the
risks of a trade war have not yet fullymaterialized. While
the Eurasian Union (excluding Russia) posted strong growth
in 2018, Russia'smain trading partners – the Euro area
and China – experienced a growth slowdown. Financial
conditions for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
(EMDEs) are tightening. Divergent monetary policies and
growth prospects among the U.S. and other major economies
contributed to a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar
in 2018. This, together with intensifying trade tensions,
deteriorating growth prospects and renewed attention to
external vulnerabilities has contributed to significant
depreciations and capital outflows in many EMDEs. EMDE
currencies fell – including the Russian ruble – and
cumulative portfolio outflows from EMDEs surpassed those
seen after the 2013 taper tantrum. Economies with external
vulnerabilities, including Argentina, Indonesia, and Turkey,
experienced the sharpest currency depreciations. While the
spillover from those countries has been limited, the
intensification of turmoil could lead investors to
reevaluate their exposure to EMDEs and to capital outflows. |
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