Paris Climate Agreement and the Global Economy : Winners and Losers
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement was the first instance of countries adhering to take a collective action against global warming. More than 190 countries came forward and submitted their contributions in the form of Intended Nationally Determined C...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2018
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/705871522683196873/Paris-climate-agreement-and-the-global-economy-winners-and-losers http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29604 |
| Summary: | The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement was the
first instance of countries adhering to take a collective
action against global warming. More than 190 countries came
forward and submitted their contributions in the form of
Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, reflective of
their ability and capacity to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions, as each country set its own targets and actions.
For some countries, it meant a significant decline in their
emissions by 2030, while others, like China, the United
States, and India, decided on a more gradual phasing out
extending beyond 2030. This paper estimates the economic
impacts of implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement in
terms of its implications for welfare, gross domestic
product, investments, and trade for major countries and
regions. It uses a computable general equilibrium framework
to model global, regional, and country impacts. The analysis
suggests that the economic impacts will be mostly felt in
the European Union if the Paris Agreement is fully
implemented. The European Union is likely to suffer a
welfare loss of 1.0 to 1.5 percent by 2030. Among
non-European countries, Australia, New Zealand, and Mexico
will also be affected, with an expected welfare loss of
about 1.5 percent. Some of the major emitters, such as China
and India, will experience minimal impacts to their welfare,
and the United States will experience a welfare loss of only
about 0.7 by 2030. The sectoral analysis of production and
trade suggests a significant loss to fossil fuel–based
sectors, while clean energy sectors can experience
significant gains. |
|---|