Would Trade Liberalization Help the Poor of Brazil?
This paper addresses the potential effects of world agricultural trade liberalization on poverty and regional income distribution in Brazil, using an inter-regional applied general equilibrium (AGE) and a micro-simulation model of Brazil tailored f...
Main Authors: | , |
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Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/117051468015593889/Would-trade-liberalization-help-the-poor-of-Brazil http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28171 |
Summary: | This paper addresses the potential
effects of world agricultural trade liberalization on
poverty and regional income distribution in Brazil, using an
inter-regional applied general equilibrium (AGE) and a
micro-simulation model of Brazil tailored for income
distribution and poverty analysis by using a detailed
representation of households. The model distinguishes 10
different labor types and has 270 different household
expenditure patterns. Income can originate from 41 different
production activities located in 27 different regions in the
country. The AGE model communicates to a micro-simulation
model that has around 112,000 Brazilian households and
264,000 adults. Poverty and income distribution indices are
computed over the entire sample of households and persons,
before and after the policy shocks. The simulated trade
liberalization scenario causes agriculture to expand
considerably and so, given the importance that agriculture
still has for the poorest in Brazil, it has positive impacts
on poverty in Brazil. The only states which show an increase
in the number of poor households are Sao Paulo and Rio de
Janeiro, where the bulk of the manufacturing activities in
Brazil are concentrated. There is an even more positive
impact on inequality. The higher fall in the poverty gap is
shown to occur mainly on the poorest household groups,
suggesting that the poorest among Brazil's poor will
benefit more from global trade liberalization. |
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