Road Projects Cost Benefit Analysis : Scenario Analysis of the Effect of Varying Inputs
Six projects from six countries were selected as the cases for detailed analysis in this study. They are from Argentina, Botswana, India, Kenya, Lao PDR and Paraguay, representing a wide range of geographical distribution. Also, the extent of the e...
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/259161468327409408/Road-projects-cost-benefit-analysis-scenario-analysis-of-the-effect-of-varying-inputs http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27814 |
| Summary: | Six projects from six countries were
selected as the cases for detailed analysis in this study.
They are from Argentina, Botswana, India, Kenya, Lao PDR and
Paraguay, representing a wide range of geographical
distribution. Also, the extent of the effect of economic
downturn which these countries experienced ranges a wide
variety. In an economic downturn, uncertainties increase
with many inputs of road projects Cost Benefit Analysis
(CBA), including fuel prices, levels of demand, investment
costs and maintenance availability. Also, important
parameters of project evaluation such as discount rate and
value of time need to be more carefully scrutinized.
Therefore, it is very important for the developing countries
to have good understanding about the effects of the
variability of these inputs/parameters on project viability
and the ranking of road investments. It is a role of the
developing agencies to conduct a systematic analysis of
these effects and disseminate the findings and knowledge
obtained. The objective of the study is to obtain insights
regarding the effects of varying inputs and parameters on
the viability of road projects through case studies using
Highway Development and Management Model (HDM-4), thereby to
facilitate the formulation and implementation of road
projects that increase the welfare of the society under the
environment of increased uncertainty in an economic
downturn. The results of the study will be summarized in a
transport note as a discrete knowledge product and
disseminated among various stakeholders including developing
agencies staff, government officials and donor communities.
To assess the effects of increased uncertainty with inputs
of cost benefit analysis on the economic viability of road
projects, this study first investigated the range of
variability of the inputs for the six selected
projects/countries. It was found that the variability ranges
differ by country reflecting the degree of decrease in
transport demand and relative change in factor prices due to
economic downturn. |
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