Description: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution in Mongolia

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution in Mongolia

The financial crisis of 2008-09 has considerably slowed the pace of economic growth in Mongolia. When combined with the Dzud (severe winter storm) of 2009-10, which occurred just as the economy was beginning to recover and killed over one million h...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	World Bank
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2017
Subjects:	ACCOUNTING ADVERSE IMPACT AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ANNUAL GROWTH AVERAGE INCOME BASE YEAR BENCHMARK BUSINESS CYCLE CASH TRANSFERS CHRONICALLY POOR CONSUMER PRICE INDEX CONSUMPTION LEVELS COUNTERFACTUAL CRISES DATA SET DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DEVELOPING COUNTRIES DEVELOPING WORLD DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT DISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES DRIVERS ECONOMETRICS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ELASTICITY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE EMPLOYMENT INCOME EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES EMPLOYMENT STATUS EXPORTS EXTREME POVERTY FARMERS FINANCIAL CRISIS FISCAL POLICIES FOOD BASKET FOOD BUNDLE FOOD PRICES GDP GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWTH PROJECTIONS GROWTH RATE HIGH GROWTH HIGH INFLATION HISTORICAL DATA HOUSEHOLD DATA HOUSEHOLD HEADS HOUSEHOLD INCOME HOUSEHOLD SIZE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY HOUSEHOLD WELFARE IMPACT ON POVERTY INCOME INCOME DATA INCOME DISTRIBUTION INCOME GAINS INCOME GROUPS INCOME GROWTH INCOME LEVEL INEQUALITY INFLATION RATE INTERVENTION LABOR DEMAND LABOR FORCE LABOR MARKET LABOR MARKETS LABOR PRODUCTIVITY LABOR SUPPLY LOW INCOME MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS MACROECONOMIC POLICIES MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES MEASUREMENT ERROR MIDDLE CLASS NEGATIVE GROWTH NEGATIVE IMPACT NEW POOR OUTPUTS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA INCOME POLICY OPTIONS POLICY REFORMS POOR POOR HOUSEHOLD POPULATION GROWTH POVERTY ESTIMATES POVERTY GAP POVERTY HEADCOUNT POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATES POVERTY IMPACT POVERTY LINE POVERTY MEASURES POVERTY RATE POVERTY REDUCTION PRICE CHANGES PROBABILITY PRODUCTIVE ASSETS PRODUCTIVITY PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT PUBLIC SECTOR RAPID INCREASE REAL GDP REAL WAGES REASSIGNMENT REDUCING POVERTY RELATIVE IMPORTANCE RELATIVE PRICES RENTS RURAL RURAL AREAS RURAL HOUSEHOLD RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RURAL INCOME RURAL POOR SAFETY SAFETY NET SAFETY NET PROGRAMS SAVINGS SECTOR EMPLOYMENT SIGNIFICANT IMPACT SKILL LEVEL SKILL WORKERS SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT TARGETING UNEMPLOYED WEALTH
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/903881468148520922/The-impact-of-the-financial-crisis-on-poverty-and-income-distribution-in-Mongolia http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27400

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Summary:	The financial crisis of 2008-09 has considerably slowed the pace of economic growth in Mongolia. When combined with the Dzud (severe winter storm) of 2009-10, which occurred just as the economy was beginning to recover and killed over one million heads of livestock, the slowdown is likely to have significant impacts on poverty as well as the distribution of income and consumption among the poor and non-poor. In this paper we examine the poverty and distributional impacts of the crisis in Mongolia, relying on predictions from a simulation model based on pre-crisis data, given that household data to measure impacts during and after the crisis is unavailable. It is difficult to predict the distributional impacts of the financial crisis with a high degree of confidence. Evidence from previous crises suggests that relative inequality falls about as often as it rises during aggregate contractions (Paci et al, 2008). Furthermore, as the crisis spreads within a country (through adjustments in domestic credit and labor markets and fiscal policies), its impacts across different groups, sectors or areas became all the more difficult to track. The paper is structured as follows. Section two outlines the basic methodological approach used to create the simulation results used here. Section three discusses the macroeconomic projections that are used as inputs into the model. Sections four and five examine the model's projections for poverty and distributional impacts respectively, section six discusses the impact of Dzud (severe winter) and section seven concludes.

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution in Mongolia

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