State of Knowledge on Climate Change, Water, and Economics
The current state of knowledge on climate change and water points to predominantly negative effects. This paper reviews the literature on these effects by geographical region and notes the differences as well as the uncertainties. An important feat...
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| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2017
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/462531493352979486/State-of-knowledge-on-climate-change-water-and-economics http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26491 |
| Summary: | The current state of knowledge on
climate change and water points to predominantly negative
effects. This paper reviews the literature on these effects
by geographical region and notes the differences as well as
the uncertainties. An important feature is the fact that the
climate effects will occur on top of water scarcity that
currently prevails in many parts of the world. The impact of
climate change on scarcity is present but generally small
compared to the impact of the socioeconomic factors. Changes
in efficiency of water use could make a big contribution to
water problems, including those caused by climate change.
In-depth estimates of damages from climate change related to
water have been made to 2060 and, less accurately, to 2100.
The 2060 estimates indicate that the impacts from water
supply changes or changes in water-related extreme events
and marine flows add up to about 1.5 of GDP in 2060 in the
absence of mitigation or adaptation. This average figure,
however, may be an underestimate of a number of reasons.
Estimates to 2100 of potential damages in economic terms are
even more uncertain but there are strong reasons to believe
they will be greater as a percentage of GDP, perhaps around
10 globally and possibly even higher. Adaptation can make a
major contribution to reducing damages from climate change
for all mitigation scenarios, and more so when mitigation is
absent or limited. Adaptation will require both private and
public actions. |
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