Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition
Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensi...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/10/26868027/conflict-poverty-afghanistans-transition http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25309 |
| Summary: | Despite record economic growth for more
than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in
Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less
from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by
combining a model of conflict intensity at the province
level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the
household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher
levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a
larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and
larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative
impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by
the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the
estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty
reduction than international troops, possibly because they
spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to
conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on
the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be
interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot
account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed
political developments. But they suggest that the reduction
in the number of international troops and declining foreign
aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a
decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends. |
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