Global Health Workforce Labor Market Projections for 2030
In low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services. This paper takes a labor market approach to project fu...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/08/26680686/global-health-workforce-labor-market-projections-2030 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25035 |
| Summary: | In low- and middle-income countries,
scaling essential health interventions to achieve health
development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled
health professionals to deliver services. This paper takes a
labor market approach to project future health workforce
demand based on an economic model that projects economic
growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using health
workforce data (1990-2013) for 165 countries from the World
Health Organization's Global Health Observatory. The
demand projections are compared with the projected growth in
health worker supply and health worker "needs" as
estimated by the World Health Organization to achieve
essential health coverage. The model predicts that by 2030
global demand for health workers will rise to 80 million
workers, double the current (2013) stock of health workers.
The supply of health workers is expected to reach 65 million
over the same period, resulting in a worldwide shortage of
15 million health workers. Growth in the demand for health
workers will be highest among upper-middle-income countries,
driven by economic growth and population growth and aging,
resulting in the largest predicted shortages, which may fuel
global competition for skilled health workers. Middle-income
countries will face workforce shortages because their demand
will exceed supply. By contrast, low-income countries will
face low growth in demand and supply, but they will face
workforce shortages because their needs will exceed supply
and demand. In many low-income countries, demand may stay
below projected supply, leading to the paradoxical
phenomenon of unemployed ("surplus") health
workers in those countries facing acute
"needs-based" shortages. |
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