Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach
The impacts of climate change on poverty depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic development in the absence of climate change in...
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597556/modeling-impacts-climate-change-future-vietnamese-households-micro-simulation-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24847 |
| Summary: | The impacts of climate change on poverty
depend on the magnitude of climate change, but also on
demographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis of
hundreds of baseline scenarios for future economic
development in the absence of climate change in Vietnam
shows that the main determinant of the eradication of
extreme poverty by 2030 is the income of unskilled
agriculture workers, followed by redistribution policies.
Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—in
agriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced in
each of the hundreds scenarios. By 2030 climate change is
found to have a significant impact on poverty in Vietnam in
about a quarter of the scenarios, with 400,000 to more than
a million people living in extreme poverty just because of
climate change impacts. Those scenarios in which climate
change pushes the most people into poverty are scenarios
with slow structural change away from agriculture, low
productivity growth in agriculture, high population growth,
and low redistribution levels. Conversely, in scenarios with
rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climate
change has no impact on extreme poverty, although it still
has an impact on the income of the bottom 40 percent. |
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