The Varying Income Effects of Weather Variation : Initial Insights from Rural Vietnam
To estimate the impact of weather on rural income changes over time, this study combines data from the panel subsample of the latest Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys 2010, 2012, and 2014 and gridded weather data from the Climate Research U...
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| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/07/26597193/varying-income-effects-weather-variation-initial-insights-rural-vietnam http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24845 |
| Summary: | To estimate the impact of weather on
rural income changes over time, this study combines data
from the panel subsample of the latest Vietnam Household
Living Standard Surveys 2010, 2012, and 2014 and gridded
weather data from the Climate Research Unit. The analyses
show: (i) crop cultivation, livestock management, forestry
and fishing activities, and agricultural wages remain
important income sources in rural Vietnam—especially for
poorer households; (ii) rural communes are exposed to
substantial inter- and intra-annual weather variation, as
measured by annual, seasonal, abnormal, and extreme weather
conditions and weather events; and (iii) these types of
weather variation are indeed related to income variation. In
particular, warmer temperatures and heat extremes can have
negative income effects in all climate contexts and for all
socioeconomic groups and most income activities. Only staple
crops, forestry, and fishing seem to be less sensitive to
hotter conditions. The effects of rainfall are more
difficult to generalize. Some findings indicate that more
rainfall is beneficial in drier places but harmful in wetter
places. Interestingly, the incomes of poorer households seem
to be negatively affected by wetter conditions, while those
of wealthier households are more impacted by drier
conditions. An increase in rainfall levels and flood
conditions between 2012 and 2014, which were relatively wet
years, is related to reduced income growth between these two
years. Altogether these findings suggests that greater
attention has to be paid to making rural livelihoods more
resilient to weather variation which, is very likely to
increase because of climate change. |
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