Romania Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy : Energy Sector Analysis
This report is about Energy sector in Romania which is responsible for 58 percent of the country’s GHG emissions (except Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)), and is therefore critical for mitigation. Romania’s economic growth and energ...
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| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26048622/romania-toward-low-carbon-climate-resilient-economy-energy-sector-analysis http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24060 |
| Summary: | This report is about Energy sector in
Romania which is responsible for 58 percent of the country’s
GHG emissions (except Land use, land-use change and forestry
(LULUCF)), and is therefore critical for mitigation.
Romania’s economic growth and energy consumption have been
decoupling since the early 1990s, and the energy intensity
of the economy has been continuously decreasing, but it is
still high. At present, Romanian energy supply system is
relatively carbon intensive, but share of zero-carbon energy
sources is growing. The energy sector analysis and modeling
were designed to find the best solutions for Romania’s
energy supply mix given the country’s prospective medium-
and long-term climate change mitigation obligations. The key
findings were as follows: (i) energy efficiency measures
will contain energy demand growth; (ii) as a result of the
new investments in the energy sector under the Green and the
Super Green scenarios, primary energy supply mix will become
cleaner. Under the Baseline scenario; (iii) new investments
in the electricity sector will lead to a much cleaner
electricity supply mix; (iv) total costs for the energy
system are lower under the Green scenario then in the
Baseline, but the Super Green mitigation targets require an
expense equal to the Baseline one; (v) electricity sector
GHG emissions in 2050 are 72 percent and 97 percent below
the 2005 level under the Green and Super Green scenarios,
respectively; (vi) GHG emission from the energy supply
system as a whole would be 25 percent and 50 percent below
in 2030 from the 2005 level in the Green and Super green
scenarios, respectively; and (vii) Marginal Abatement Cost
Curve (MACC) shows that the proposed measures provide a
significant potential abatement level totaling in 2050. The
conclusions and recommendations were as follows: (a) Romania
can meet the GHG mitigation obligations likely under the EU
2030 framework in energy and electricity sectors at moderate
costs; (b) The prospective requirements of the EU 2050
Roadmap, which requires at least 80 percent reduction in
emissions overall and the virtual elimination of emissions
from the power sector, are both expensive and challenging to
implement; (c) Implementation of a set of aggressive energy
efficiency measures is a key part of the Green and the Super
Green scenarios; (d) a lower carbon path for Romania’s
energy sector imposes significant costs and complex planning
challenges on the sector, in particular on power generation;
(e) energy sector in Romania has the potential to become an
engine of economic growth; (f) while this assessment
included a set of generally-agreed technologies at costs
based on today’s best analysis, both technologies and costs
will surely evolve, and updated analysis will be needed; and
(g) while long-term sector development to 2030 and 2050, the
subject of this assessment, is important, the government
cannot be distracted from critical near-term sector reforms. |
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