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Moldova Trade Study : Note 2. Is the DCFTA Good for Moldova? Analysis of Moldova’s Trade Options Using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

Moldova’s recent Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an important opportunity, as well as challenges. This analytical document has been commissioned by...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: World Bank
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2016
Subjects:
TARIFFS
REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
CUSTOMS ADMINISTRATION
CUSTOMS UNION
EXPORT MARKETS
CURRENCY APPRECIATION
MULTILATERAL TRADE
PROFIT MARGINS
EXPORT CAPACITY
FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
PRODUCTION
FOREIGN INVESTORS
INCOME
BARRIERS ON IMPORTS
EXPECTATIONS
TRADE BARRIERS
REAL GDP
PROPERTY RIGHTS
PROTECTIONIST
DOMESTIC MARKET
EXPORTS
NATIONAL TREATMENT
STATISTICAL DATA
ELASTICITY
TRADE AREAS
EXPORT PRICES
ECONOMIC RELATIONS
WELFARE
TARIFF CONCESSIONS
SPECIAL INCENTIVES
OPTIMIZATION
GROSS VALUE
INCENTIVES
FREE IMPORTS
EQUILIBRIUM
DISTRIBUTION
INPUTS
PAYMENTS
FREE TRADE
TECHNICAL REGULATIONS
TRENDS
PREFERENTIAL ACCESS
TRADE AGREEMENTS
CUSTOMS PROCEDURES
CUSTOMS DUTIES
TRADE IN GOODS
INFLUENCE
TRADE BALANCE
FOREIGN TRADE
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
SAVINGS
IMPORT PRICES
COSTS
TRADE RESTRICTIONS
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
RENT
CUSTOMS
PRODUCTIVITY
FREE ACCESS
MONOPOLY
IMPERFECT COMPETITION
QUOTAS
CRITERIA
EXPORT VOLUME
MARKETS
WTO
TARIFF REDUCTIONS
IMPORTS
PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENTS
TRADE POLICY
ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
AVERAGE PRODUCTION COSTS
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
UTILITY
TRADE AGREEMENT
CUSTOMS ENFORCEMENT
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
TRADE COMPETITIVENESS
EXPORT MARKET
PRODUCTION INPUTS
TAXES
PROTECTIONIST MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS
TRADE VOLUME
EXPORT FACILITATION
CONSUMPTION
GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
TRADE IN SERVICES
GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION
VALUE ADDED
TRAVEL
CAPITAL
WAGES
TRADE PREFERENCES
DEFLATORS
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS
VALUE
COMPETITIVENESS
TRADE ARRANGEMENTS
PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
TRADE DEFICIT
PURCHASING POWER
ECONOMIC SECTORS
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
EXPORT PRODUCTS
DEMAND
NATIONAL INCOME
DOMESTIC SALES
EXPECTED VALUE
ECONOMY
CONSUMERS
AGRICULTURE
TAX RATES
TRADE AREA
TRADE FACILITATION
TRADE LIBERALIZATION
PRODUCTION FUNCTION
PREFERENTIAL TREATMENT
SKILLED LABOR
TRADE DIVERSION
TRADE
ECONOMIC INTEGRATION
MUTUAL RECOGNITION
GDP
EXPORT PRICE
GOODS
ECONOMIES OF SCALE
GENERALIZED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES
GROWTH RATE
BILATERAL TRADE
MARGINAL REVENUE
INVESTMENT
SUPERMARKETS
HOTELS
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
CUSTOMS UNIONS
TARIFF
TRADE RELATIONS
TRADE SANCTIONS
FREE TRADE AREA
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
WORLD TRADE
TARIFF CONCESSION
MOST FAVORED NATION
PREFERENTIAL TARIFF
PRICE INDEXES
FINANCIAL SECTOR
OUTCOMES
IMPORT DUTIES
IMPORT DUTY
TRADE REGIME
CUSTOMS DECLARATIONS
OUTSOURCING
UNSKILLED LABOR
TARIFF TREATMENT
PRICES
PRODUCTION COSTS
BENEFITS
ADAPTIVE EXPECTATIONS
INEQUALITY
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26075964/dcfta-good-moldova-analysis-moldova’s-trade-options-using-dynamic-computable-general-equilibrium-model
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24043
Description
Summary:Moldova’s recent Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an important opportunity, as well as challenges. This analytical document has been commissioned by the World Bank Group to provide insights into potential outcomes of the DCFTA and of other trade options that Moldova has, using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model calibrated to its economy. This paper begins by describing the general trends in economic relations between Moldova and the EU over the past 10 years, with an emphasis on trade, as well as Foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor migration. This section includes some additional facts and details that complement the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic. In the second section, the paper presents the main elements of the DCFTA and highlights the trade commitments and concessions that the EU and Moldova undertook. It also includes a short review of available literature on the ex-ante or ex post impact assessments of other Association Agreements between the EU and third countries that have been done using CGE models. The third section presents key features of the DCGE and discusses the data used for assembling the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then, the main features of the simulated trade scenarios are presented. Finally, this paper discusses the DCGE simulation results, including the effects of the various scenarios on welfare, trade, and economic activity level. Some distributional impacts are also brought into discussion. The final section concludes and makes several recommendations.

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