Global Trade Watch : Trade Developments in 2015
After sharply declining in the first half of 2015, world trade began to grow, albeit at a slow pace. Preliminary data indicate that merchandise import growth was 1.7 percent in 2015, down from 3 percent in 2014. Recent trade developments should be...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26040867/global-trade-watch-trade-developments-2015 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23889 |
| Summary: | After sharply declining in the first
half of 2015, world trade began to grow, albeit at a slow
pace. Preliminary data indicate that merchandise import
growth was 1.7 percent in 2015, down from 3 percent in 2014.
Recent trade developments should be seen in the context of a
deceleration in trade growth since the early 2000s, and
particularly since the global financial crisis. These
developments reflected a combination of old and new cyclical
factors as well as enduring structural determinants, such as
the maturation of global value chains and the slower pace of
trade liberalization. In particular, trade developments in
Latin America and Eastern Europe and Central Asia mostly
reflected lower imports of recession hit commodity exporters
such as Brazil and Russia. Latin America contributed 6
percent to the downward pull in global imports in 2015.
Except for Japan, imports and exports of advanced economies
did not show signs of a significant downturn, but were
sluggish. Lower commodity prices have reduced real incomes
in commodity producers and led to a contraction in their
imports from all regions, including China. At the same time,
the gradual shift from investment to consumption in China,
and the more significant contraction in its industrial
production seen in early 2015, have reduced its imports from
other regions, including commodity producers. |
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