Lifting Economic Sanctions on Iran : Global Effects and Strategic Responses
This paper uses a global general equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/02/25854542/lifting-economic-sanctions-iran-global-effects-strategic-responses http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23726 |
| Summary: | This paper uses a global general
equilibrium simulation model to quantify the effects of
lifting economic sanctions on Iran with and without
strategic responses. Iran benefits the most, with average
per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent, in
the case when Iran's crude oil exports to the European
Union recover to half their pre-embargo level, to 6.5
percent, in the best case of complete recovery of oil
exports to the European Union, successful domestic reforms
that enable a strong supply response, and increased market
access for Iranian exports in developed markets. Iran could
achieve benefits close to the upper range if Gulf
Cooperation Council oil exporters limit their crude oil
exports to support the oil price. If they do nothing,
however, the price of oil will decline by 13 percent in the
case of complete recovery of oil exports to the European
Union, leaving net oil importers better off and net oil
exporters worse off. |
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