Seasonality in Local Food Markets and Consumption : Evidence from Tanzania
This paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of monthly food prices from 20 markets and three years of nationally representative household panel surveys from Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are intro...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25700645/seasonality-local-food-markets-consumption-evidence-tanzania http://hdl.handle.net/10986/23620 |
| Summary: | This paper revisits the extent of
seasonality in African livelihoods. It uses 19 years of
monthly food prices from 20 markets and three years of
nationally representative household panel surveys from
Tanzania. Trigonometric specifications are introduced to
measure the seasonal gap. When samples are short and
seasonality is poorly defined, they produce less upward bias
than the common dummy variable approach. On average, the
seasonal gap for maize prices is estimated to be 27 percent;
it is 15 percent for rice. In both cases it is two and a
half to three times higher than in the international
reference market. Food price seasonality is not a major
contributor to food price volatility, but it does translate
into seasonal variation in caloric intake of about 10
percent among poor urban households and rural net food
sellers. Rural net food-buying households appear able to
smooth their consumption. The disappearance of seasonality
from Africas development debate seems premature. |
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