A Comprehensive Review of Empirical and Modeled HIV Incidence Trends (1990-2012)
An accurate measurement of HIV incidence is a key for policy makers and HIV program managers directing national HIV response. However, there is no perfect method to measure or estimate the rate at which new HIV infections occur in a population. Thi...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank Group, Washington, DC
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20229050/comprehensive-review-empirical-modeled-hiv-incidence-trends-1990-2012-comprehensive-review-empirical-modeled-hiv-incidence-trends-1990-2012 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20378 |
| Summary: | An accurate measurement of HIV incidence
is a key for policy makers and HIV program managers
directing national HIV response. However, there is no
perfect method to measure or estimate the rate at which new
HIV infections occur in a population. This review compiles
and triangulates longitudinal HIV incidence and prevalence
data from published studies and trials, national reports and
surveys, and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
estimates from the Spectrum model, focusing on 20 countries
in Sub-Saharan Africa with generalized HIV epidemics. Three
main points can be taken from this analysis of HIV incidence
trends. First, modeled HIV incidence and nationally reported
HIV prevalence levels in young females suggest that national
HIV incidence has declined since 2000 in all except three
countries analyzed (stable estimated HIV trends in Burkina
Faso, Burundi, and Uganda), but trial and survey data
suggest that in some demographics, HIV incidence remains
critically high. Second, all modeled national HIV incidence
curves and most empirically observed trends commenced a
downward trajectory prior to the introduction of
anti-retroviral therapy programs around 2004, suggesting the
contribution of other factors, such as HIV prevention
programs and natural epidemic dynamics, to this decline.
Third, modeled HIV incidence estimates, including the
incidence peaks in the past, exhibit much variation between
Spectrum model versions and when new data are added,
emphasizing the uncertainty of model outputs and the need to
use incidence estimates with caution. |
|---|