External Interventions and the Duration of Civil Wars
The authors combine an empirical model of external intervention, with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration, using "expected" rather than "actual&qu...
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2000/09/693318/external-interventions-duration-civil-wars http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19794 |
| Summary: | The authors combine an empirical model
of external intervention, with a theoretical model of civil
war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows
them to analyze civil war duration, using
"expected" rather than "actual" external
intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration
model. Unlike previous studies, they find that external
intervention is positively associated with the duration of
civil war. They distinguish partial third-party
interventions that extend the length of war, from
multilateral "peace" operations, which have a
mandate to restore peace without taking sides - and which
typically take place at war's end, or at least when
both sides have agreed to a cease-fire. In a future paper,
the authors will examine whether partial third-party
interventions - whatever their effect on a war's
duration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. If
that proves true, then even if interventions reduce the
length of civil war, they may do so at the cost of further
destabilizing the political system, and sowing the seeds of
future rebellion. |
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