Does the Exchange Rate Regime Affect Macroeconomic Performance : Evidence from Transition Economics
To examine whether a country's exchange rate regime has any impact on inflation and growth performance in transition economies, the authors develop an empirical framework that addresses some of the main problems plaguing empirical work in this...
Main Authors: | , , |
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Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2001/07/1552022/exchange-rate-regime-affect-macroeconomic-performance-evidence-transition-economics http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19572 |
Summary: | To examine whether a country's
exchange rate regime has any impact on inflation and growth
performance in transition economies, the authors develop an
empirical framework that addresses some of the main problems
plaguing empirical work in this strand of the literature:
the Lucas critique, the endogeneity of the exchange rate
regime, and the sample selection problem. Empirical results
demonstrate that the exchange rate regime does affect
inflation performance. the results suggest that: 1)
Transition countries with intermediate arrangements might
reduce inflation if they were to adopt a fixed regime. 2)
Switching from a floating regime to an intermediate regime
might not reduce inflation. 3) An unanticipated float--when
a country whose fundamentals make it unlikely to adopt
another regime adopts a floating regime--results in lower
inflation. Based on their results, it is not possible to
infer more about one particular exchange rate regime being
superior to another in terms of growth performance. But
empirical findings do underscore the different effects that
policy variables--and other variables influencing economic
activity--have on growth under different exchange-rate arrangements. |
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