New Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Lebanese Economy
Weak economic statistics in Lebanon impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the National Bureau of Economic Research-...
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| Language: | English en_US |
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World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19736811/new-coincident-leading-indicators-lebanese-economy http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19374 |
| Summary: | Weak economic statistics in Lebanon
impede economic analysis and decision making. This paper
presents a new coincident indicator and a leading indicator
for the Lebanese economy. A new methodology, based on the
National Bureau of Economic Research-Conference Board
approach, was used to construct these indicators. The
indicators can be used as monthly proxies for the evolution
of real gross domestic product with a relatively small time
lag (four to five months). Notwithstanding the relatively
small sample period, the results reveal promising
statistical properties that should make these new
indications valuable coincident and leading (one-year ahead)
indicators for analyzing the dynamics of the Lebanese
economy. However, given limitations on the length of the
gross domestic product time series in Lebanon, the accuracy
of these indicators in tracking the business cycle of the
Lebanese economy is expected to improve over time as more
data points become available. |
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