The Epidemiological Impact of an HIV Vaccine on the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Southern India
The potential epidemiological impact of preventive HIV vaccines on the HIV epidemic in Southern India is examined using a mathematical deterministic dynamic compartmental model. Various assumptions about the degree of protection offered by such a v...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2003/02/2160788/epidemiological-impact-hiv-vaccine-hivaids-epidemic-southern-india http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19152 |
| Summary: | The potential epidemiological impact of
preventive HIV vaccines on the HIV epidemic in Southern
India is examined using a mathematical deterministic dynamic
compartmental model. Various assumptions about the degree of
protection offered by such a vaccine, the extent of
immunological response of those vaccinated, and the duration
of protection afforded are explored. Alternative targeting
strategies for HIV vaccination are simulated and compared
with the impact of conventional prevention interventions in
high-risk groups and the general population. The impact of
disinhibition (increased risk behavior due to the presence
of a vaccine) is also considered. Vaccines that convey a
high degree of protection in a share of or all of those
immunized and that convey life-long immunity are the most
effective in curbing the HIV epidemic. Vaccines that convey
less than complete protection may also have substantial
public health impact, but disinhibition can easily undo
their effects and they should be used combined with
conventional prevention efforts. Conventional interventions
that target commercial sex workers and their clients to
increase condom use can also be highly effective and can be
implemented immediately, before the arrival of vaccines. |
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