The Method of Randomization, Economic Policy, and Reasoned Intuition
The method of randomization has been a major driver in the recent rise to prominence of empirical development economics. It has helped uncover patterns and facts that had earlier escaped attention. But it has also given rise to heated debate and co...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/18640166/method-randomization-economic-policy-reasoned-intuition http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16938 |
| Summary: | The method of randomization has been a
major driver in the recent rise to prominence of empirical
development economics. It has helped uncover patterns and
facts that had earlier escaped attention. But it has also
given rise to heated debate and controversy. This paper
evaluates the method of randomization and concludes that,
while the method of randomization is the gold standard for
description, it is not able to demonstrate causality. Nor
does it, in itself, lead to policy conclusions, as is often
claimed by its advocates. To get to policy conclusions
requires combining the findings of randomized experiments
with human intuition, which, being founded in evolution, has
innate strengths. Moreover, even non-randomized empirical
methods combined with reasoned intuition can help in
crafting development policy. |
|---|