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Simulating Poverty in Europe : The Potential Contributions of Employment and Education to Reducing Poverty and Social Exclusion by 2020

This paper sheds light on the impact of improving employment and education conditions on poverty and social exclusion indicators. More specifically, it answers the following question: Will achieving the Europe 2020 national targets on employment an...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan, Simler, Kenneth, Azam, Mehtabul, Dasgupta, Basab, Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha, Topinska, Irena
Language:English
en_US
Published: World Bank, Washington, DC 2014
Subjects:
ABSOLUTE POVERTY
BENEFICIARIES
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS
CHRONIC ILLNESS
CITIES
COUNTRY LEVEL
DEPENDENT VARIABLE
DEVELOPMENT POLICY
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
DISABLED PEOPLE
DISADVANTAGED GROUPS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
EDUCATION LEVEL
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
EMPLOYMENT PATTERNS
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
EQUILIBRIUM
ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS
EXPLAINING CHANGES
EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
FAMILY LABOR
FINANCIAL CRISIS
FORECASTS
GROWTH RATE
GROWTH RATES
HIGH EMPLOYMENT
HIGH GROWTH
HOSPITALS
HOUSEHOLD BUDGET
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HOUSEHOLD SIZE
HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
IMMIGRANTS
IMPACT ON POVERTY
INCOME
INCOME DATA
INCOME DISTRIBUTION
INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
INCOME INEQUALITY
INCOME POVERTY
INCOME TRANSFERS
INDEPENDENT VARIABLES
INDEXES
INDICATORS OF POVERTY
INEQUALITY
INNOVATION
INSURANCE
LABOR FORCE
LABOR MARKET
LABOR MARKET INDICATORS
LABOR MARKETS
OLD AGE
OLDER WORKERS
OUTCOME INDICATORS
PER CAPITA GROWTH
PERSISTENT POVERTY
POLICY CHANGE
POLICY INTERVENTIONS
POLICY MAKERS
POLICY MEASURES
POLICY REFORMS
POLICY RESEARCH
POOR
POOR PEOPLE
POVERTY IMPACTS
POVERTY INCIDENCE
POVERTY INDICATORS
POVERTY LEVELS
POVERTY LINE
POVERTY POVERTY
POVERTY RATE
POVERTY RATES
POVERTY REDUCTION
POVERTY THRESHOLD
PRIVATE TRANSFERS
PROBABILITY
REDUCING POVERTY
REFORM PROGRAMS
RELATIVE POVERTY LINE
RETIREMENT
RURAL
RURAL AREAS
SECOND ROUND EFFECTS
SELECTION BIAS
SHARP REDUCTION
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
SOCIAL ASSISTANCE
SOCIAL BENEFITS
SOCIAL INCLUSION
SOCIAL PROGRAMS
SOCIAL PROTECTION
TARGETING
UNEMPLOYED
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
WAGES
Online Access:http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/10/18404040/simulating-poverty-europe-potential-contributions-employment-education-reducing-poverty-social-exclusion-2020
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16873
Description
Summary:This paper sheds light on the impact of improving employment and education conditions on poverty and social exclusion indicators. More specifically, it answers the following question: Will achieving the Europe 2020 national targets on employment and education lead countries to achieve the Europe 2020 poverty and social exclusion target with no other policy interventions? The paper presents a simple partial equilibrium model that is flexible enough to be implemented in a number of different settings and uses widely available household survey data. The simulation model analyzes poverty and social exclusion outcomes in response to changes in education completion rates and employment rates. The model is applied to ten of the European Union's new Member States -- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia -- and the model's performance is evaluated through a validation exercise. The Europe 2020 national employment targets are ambitious in many of the new Member States, given historical employment patterns in the countries. Especially in light of the slow and uncertain recovery, labor markets remain weak and employment rates in 2020 could fall short of rates targeted by national policy makers. In this eventuality, the poverty and social exclusion goals may not be reached in many of the new Member States without additional policy measures.

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