Africa's Macroeconomic Story
Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's post-independence macroeconomic history has been characterized by boom-bust cycles. Growth accelerations have been common, but short lived. Weak policy formulation and implementation led to large external and fisca...
Main Authors: | , |
---|---|
Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2014
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/10/18343628/africas-macroeconomic-story http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16852 |
Summary: | Much of Sub-Saharan Africa's
post-independence macroeconomic history has been
characterized by boom-bust cycles. Growth accelerations have
been common, but short lived. Weak policy formulation and
implementation led to large external and fiscal imbalances,
excessive debt accumulation, volatile inflation, and sharp
exchange rate fluctuations. This characterization changed,
however, in the mid-1990s, when debt relief and better
macroeconomic policy began to provide a source of stability
that has helped sustain robust growth throughout much of the
region. In resource rich countries, the process was
supported over the past few years by a dramatic increase in
commodity prices. But resources are only one part of the
story. Growth has exhibited impressive resilience even in
the face of negative external shocks, as in 2008-2009. While
the short-term outlook remains positive, over the medium
term policy makers face new challenges. Several countries
have the potential to greatly expand natural resource
production and become major commodity exporters; volatile
resource revenue will complicate their fiscal and monetary
planning. Rising investor appetite for financial assets of
frontier markets and the development of domestic debt
markets will continue to broaden the menu of and trade-offs
among financing options at a time when global interest rates
may start sloping upward. Complex financing arrangements --
notably for private-public or public-public partnerships in
infrastructure -- will become more common and will generate
new types of fiscal commitments and contingencies. |
---|