Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?
Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2006/09/17760941/african-agriculture-survive-climate-change http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16440 |
| Summary: | Measurement of the likely magnitude of
the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture
has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than
9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional
approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by
climate change compared with current mean temperature.
Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature
elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues
rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are
located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered
by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming
has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated
crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock.
Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income
immediately. The final effects will also depend on changes
in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types
increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are
less sensitive to climate, where water is available,
irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa. |
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