Demand for Imports in Venezuela : A Structural Time Series Approach
Using structural time series models, Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP. This highlights the powerful structu...
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
2013
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2002/04/1769434/demand-imports-venezuela-structural-time-series-approach http://hdl.handle.net/10986/14820 |
| Summary: | Using structural time series models,
Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP and
imports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trend
drifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP.
This highlights the powerful structural tendency toward
increasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitly
estimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5
and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percent
real exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percent
increase in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDP
growth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth.
The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of imports
uniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticity
reaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-year
cycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cycle
frequency is associated with the recurrence of external
imbalances in Venezuela. |
|---|