Some Economic Consequences of Global Aging : A Discussion Note for the World Bank
The note describes the importance of population aging world-wide, clarifying its prevalence among middle- and low-income countries, which suggests that many developing countries are getting old before they are growing rich. The note then asks in wh...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2010/12/13235535/some-economic-consequences-global-aging-discussion-note-world-bank http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13603 |
| Summary: | The note describes the importance of
population aging world-wide, clarifying its prevalence among
middle- and low-income countries, which suggests that many
developing countries are getting old before they are growing
rich. The note then asks in what way population aging is an
economic problem and what are the specific challenges facing
developing countries in this process. The note argues
against the common, time-bomb perception?, and clarifies how
a simplistic extrapolation from the impact of aging on
single programs such as public pensions gives a misleading
impression about the more general macroeconomic consequences
of population aging, where numerous elements contribute to a
more nuanced result. The note briefly discusses various
topics of importance in the population aging debate,
including: intergenerational flows, social contracts, the
risk management element of old-age policies, and the impact
of aging on health care costs. The note seeks to share a
number of counterintuitive or simply non-intuitive facts,
including: (i) the large impact of declines in fertility on
population aging (often more important than increases in
longevity); (ii) the impact of increased life expectancy on
working age populations (often larger than among old age
populations); (iii) the positive impact of aging on capital
intensity; (iv) the need to include education in assessments
of intergenerational equity (these often simply look at who
pays for old-age pensions and health services); and (v) the
role of long-term care programs as insurance for risks faced
by young adults. |
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