Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania : Past Volatility and Future Climate Change
Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exportin...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/07/16506726/agriculture-trade-opportunities-tanzania-past-volatility-future-climate-change http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11947 |
| Summary: | Given global heterogeneity in
climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the
potential to substantially increase its maize exports to
other countries. If global maize production is lower than
usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions,
Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices,
even if it also experiences below-trend productivity.
Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced
trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the
partners' usual import sources. Future climate
predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading
partners will experience severe dry conditions that may
reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is
only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to
countries as climate change increases the likelihood of
severe precipitation deficits in other countries while
simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe
precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like
export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these
opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits. |
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