South East Europe Regular Economic Report, June 2012
After they achieved 2.2 percent growth in 2011, early indications are that the economies of the six countries in South East Europe (the SEE6: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) are slowing drastica...
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Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
Washington, DC
2012
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Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/06/16336076/south-east-europe-regular-economic-report http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11888 |
Summary: | After they achieved 2.2 percent growth
in 2011, early indications are that the economies of the six
countries in South East Europe (the SEE6: Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro,
and Serbia) are slowing drastically and can expect just 1.1
percent growth in 2012. Economic conditions in the Euro zone
are holding back economic activity and depressing government
revenues in SEE6 countries. With both public debt and
financing pressures high, most countries in the region need
to embark on major fiscal consolidation programs if they are
to reverse their adverse debt dynamics and avoid financing
problems down the road. The good news is that in general the
SEE6 financial sectors are still relatively well placed,
despite elevated risks and vulnerability to adverse shocks,
especially the possibility of contagion if the Greek crisis
should intensify. The bad news is social: SEE6 countries
have the highest unemployment and poverty rates in Europe.
Yet even with the difficult short-term situation, SEE6
countries now have historic opportunity to board the
European 'convergence train' and over the long
term reduce their per capita income gap with developed
European Union (EU) countries. All earlier entrants were
able to 'catch up quickly.' In principle, the same
'convergence train' is now pulling into the EU
candidate countries in SEE6; but these gains are not
automatic, they will materialize only if country policies
and reforms facilitate them. The long-term SEE6 structural
reform agenda must leverage greater trade and financial
integration and reform labor markets and the public sector. |
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