Table of Contents: Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa :

Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa : Modeling and Evaluation.

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Henning, Christian.
Other Authors:	Badiane, Ousmane., Krampe, Eva.
Format:	eBook
Language:	English
Published:	Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2017.
Edition:	1st ed.
Series:	Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development Series
Subjects:	Electronic books.
Online Access:	Click to View

Table of Contents:

Intro
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
List of Acronyms
Policy Support Through Modeling and Evaluation: Methodological Challenges and Practical Solutions
1 A General Framework for Policy and Policy Process Evaluation
1.1 The Basic Setup
1.2 Policy Impact Evaluation
1.2.1 Policy Evaluation Criteria
1.2.2 Intervention Logic
1.2.3 Evaluation Methods
Model-Based Policy Evaluation
Simple Incidence Analysis
Micro-simulation Partial Equilibrium Models
Macro or General Equilibrium Models
Micro-Macro Linked Models
1.3 Econometric Policy Evaluation
1.4 Modeling and Evaluation of Policy Processes
2 Contributions to This Volume
References
Part I: Modeling Economic Policies
Macro-economic Models: Comparative Analysis of Strategies and Long Term Outlook for Growth and Poverty Reduction Among ECOWAS ...
1 Introduction
1.1 What Are the Key Sources of Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction in ECOWAS Countries?
1.2 Are ECOWAS Countries on Track to Meeting CAADPś Growth and Poverty Reduction Targets by 2015?
1.3 How Fast Should ECOWAS Countries Grow to Achieve the Poverty MDG? How Much Would They Have to Spend?
1.4 How Consistent Are Agricultural Investment Priorities and Related Growth and Poverty Outcomes Among ECOWAS Countries?
2 Conclusion
ANNEX
Description of the Model Used to Simulate Long Term Growth and Poverty Reduction Outcomes
Model Specification and Calibration Data
Mathematical Model Description
References
Macro-economic Models: How to Spend Ugandaś Expected Oil Revenues? A CGE Analysis of the Agricultural and Poverty Impacts of ...
1 Introduction
2 Investing Oil Revenues: Options and Challenges
2.1 Revenue Stabilization Options
2.2 Investment Spending Options
2.2.1 Investment for Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction.
2.2.2 Transferring Rents to Citizens
3 CGE Model Simulation Setup
3.1 The Ugandan Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model
3.1.1 Private Production and Consumption
3.1.2 Macroeconomic Closures and Dynamics
3.2 Simulation Setup
3.2.1 Baseline Scenario
3.2.2 Modeling Oil Production and Refining
3.2.3 Oil Simulation Experiments
4 Model Results
4.1 Public Investment Scenarios with No Productivity Spillover Effects
4.1.1 Spending All Revenues on Infrastructure (FND00INV)
4.1.2 Transferring Oil Revenues to a Foreign Oil Fund (FND50INV)
4.1.3 Transferring Rents to Citizens (FND00IandH)
4.2 Public Investment Scenarios with Productivity Spillover Effects
5 Conclusion
References
Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Impact of the National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) Program of Ugan...
1 Data and Methods
1.1 Data
1.2 Estimation Approach
1.2.1 Variables
2 Results
2.1 Determinants of Participation in the Program: Overlap in Covariate Distributions
2.1.1 Estimated Treatment Effects of the Program on Agricultural Income (INC)
3 Conclusions and Implications
References
Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Modeling Agricultural Growth and Nutrition Linkages: Lessons from Tanzania an...
1 Introduction
2 Methods
2.1 IFPRIś Standard Recursive-Dynamic CGE Model
2.2 Macro-Micro Linkages and Microsimulation Modeling
3 Country Case Studies
3.1 Tanzania
3.1.1 Notes on the Methodological Framework
3.1.2 Tanzaniaś Recent Growth Performance
3.1.3 Comparing Business-as-Usual Growth to Broad-Based Agricultural Growth
3.1.4 Identifying Priority Sectors for Agricultural Growth
3.1.5 Policy Recommendations
3.2 Malawi
3.2.1 Cross-Country Evidence on the Relationship Between Growth and Nutrition
3.2.2 Malawiś Farm Input Subsidy Program.
3.2.3 Modeled Scenarios and Results
3.2.4 Policy Recommendations
4 The Way Forward
References
Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioral Microsimulations
1 Introduction
2 A Stylized Macro-Micro Model with a Behavioral Micro-simulation
2.1 The Macro Model and the Link Variables
2.2 A Prototype Income Generation Model: The Micro-simulation
3 Applications
3.1 The Poverty Impacts of Trade Liberalization in Brazil
3.2 The Poverty Impacts of the Bolivian Gas Boom
3.3 Strengths and Weaknesses
4 Conclusions
References
Part II: Modeling Policy Processes
Modeling and Evaluation of Political Processes: A New Quantitative Approach
1 Introduction
2 The Evolutionary Computable General Political Economy Equilibrium Model: An Overview
2.1 General Structure and Characterization of an eCGPE
2.2 What Is the Purpose and Advantage of a Quantitative Policy Analysis Tool?
3 Theoretical Background of the eCGPE
3.1 Module I: Legislative Decisionmaking
3.1.1 The Mean Voter Rule
3.1.2 How the Mean Voter Rule Works: An Illustrative Example
3.1.3 Endogenous Derivation of Legislators ́Policy Preferences
3.2 Module II: Transformation of Policy Choices into Policy Outcomes
3.2.1 Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE)
3.2.2 Policy Impact Function
3.3 Module III: Interest Mediation Module
3.3.1 Modeling Voter Behavior
3.3.2 Lobbying Activities
3.4 Module IV: Belief Formation Module
3.4.1 Communication Learning
4 Communication Networks and Policy Learning: A Simple Example
4.1 Observational Policy Learning
4.2 Reinforcement Learning
4.3 Combination of Observational and Communication Learning
5 Summary and Conclusion
References.
A Network Based Approach to Evaluate Participatory Policy Processes: An Application to CAADP in Malawi
1 Introduction
2 A Theoretical Framework for Evaluating Policy Processes
2.1 Government Accountability
2.2 Government Capture
2.3 Political Knowledge
2.4 Political Ownership
3 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Processes in Malawi
3.1 Policy Reform Context
3.1.1 Study Design and Data Collection
4 Analyzing the CAADP Policy Process in Malawi: A Network Approach
4.1 Relevant Organizations in the CAADP Policy Domain
4.2 Identified Network Structures of Political Participation in Malawi
4.2.1 Political Communication
4.2.2 Lobbying
4.3 Political Influence and Power
5 Evaluating Identified Participation Structures
6 From Diagnosis to Therapy: Lessons Concerning Efficient Design of Participatory Policy Processes
7 Conclusion
Appendix
References
The Formation of Elite Communication Networks in Malawi: A Bayesian Econometric Approach
1 Introduction
2 Determinants of Political Communication Networks
2.1 Theoretical Considerations
2.2 Empirical Determinants of Communication
3 Study Design and Econometric Model Framework
3.1 Study Design
3.2 Econometric Model
4 Empirical Results
4.1 Homophily in Interests and Other Determinants
4.2 Knowledge
4.3 Structural Factors
5 Discussion
6 Conclusion
References
Voter Behavior and Government Performance in Malawi: An Application of a Probabilistic Voting Model
1 Introduction
2 Related Literature
3 The Model
3.1 The Voters
3.2 Parties and the Government
3.3 Political Equilibrium
3.4 Voter Behavior and Government Performance
4 Econometric Models and Estimation Strategy
4.1 Data
4.1.1 The Party System and Elections in Malawi
4.1.2 Afrobarometer Voter Survey
4.2 Results.
4.2.1 Goodness of Fit and Model Selection
4.2.2 Voting Behavior in Malawi
4.2.3 Voter Behavior and Government Performance
4.2.4 Relating Government Performance and Voting Behavior
5 Conclusion and Outlook for Future Work
References
Whither Participation? Evaluating Participatory Policy Processes Using the CGPE Approach: The Case of CAADP in Malawi
1 Introduction
2 Technical Implementation and Empirical Specification of the CGPE model
2.1 Technical Implementation in GAMS
2.2 Empirical Calibration of the eCGPE and Data
2.3 Estimation of the Policy Impact Function
2.4 Estimation of Individual Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge
3 Results
3.1 Political Incentives
3.2 Policy Beliefs and Political Knowledge
3.3 Assessing Political Knowledge
4 Political Diagnosis
4.1 Assessing Political Performance
4.1.1 Knowledge or Incentive Gaps?
4.2 From Diagnosis to Political Therapy: Simulating Political Performance Gaps with Increased Stakeholder Participation
4.2.1 Simulation Scenarios
4.2.2 Benchmark Scenarios
4.2.3 Simulating Constitutional Reforms
4.2.4 Simulating the Informal Political Influence of Nongovernmental Organizations
4.3 Whither Participation?
5 Conclusion and Outlook on Future Research
Appendix
References
Part III: Concluding Remarks
Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support Systems (SAKSS): Translating Evidence into Action
1 Introduction
2 The Strategic Analysis Concept and Approach
2.1 How Can Agriculture Contribute the Most to Overall Development Objectives?
2.2 How Should Resources Be Mobilized and Allocated More Efficiently?
2.3 How Can Individual Policies and Interventions Be Better Targeted?
2.4 How Can Lessons Be Monitored and Evaluated During and After Implementation?.
2.4.1 Ensuring Availability and Reliability of Underlying Data Systems.

Development Policies and Policy Processes in Africa : Modeling and Evaluation.

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