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Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy.

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Kalkuhl, Matthias.
Other Authors: von Braun, Joachim., Torero, Maximo.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2016.
Edition:1st ed.
Subjects:
Electronic books.
Online Access:Click to View
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Foreword
  • Acknowledgments
  • Contents
  • Part I Introduction
  • 1 Volatile and Extreme Food Prices, Food Security, and Policy: An Overview
  • 1.1 The Relevance of Food Price Volatility
  • 1.2 Understanding the Linkages Between Food Security, Price Volatility, and Extreme Events
  • 1.2.1 The Concept of Food Security
  • 1.2.2 Food Price Volatility
  • 1.2.3 Extreme Events
  • 1.3 Conceptual Framework of Volatility, Food Security Impacts, and Policy Responses
  • 1.4 Contribution and Contents of the Book
  • 1.5 Implications for Policymaking
  • 1.5.1 Policies to Prevent and Reduce Excessive Price Volatility
  • 1.5.1.1 Agricultural Markets: Information, Transparency, and Regulation
  • 1.5.1.2 Stocks, Trade, and Regional Cooperation
  • 1.5.1.3 Biofuel Policies, Energy Prices, Climate Change, and Technological Change
  • 1.5.2 Social Protection and Nutrition Policies
  • 1.5.3 New International Institutional Arrangements
  • 1.6 Implications for Future Research
  • References
  • Part II Food Price Volatility at International Food Commodity Markets
  • 2 Volatile Volatility: Conceptual and Measurement Issues Related to Price Trends and Volatility
  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Price Levels and Price Variability
  • 2.3 Different Measures and Concepts
  • 2.3.1 Prices in Real or Nominal Terms
  • 2.3.2 World Prices: In What Currency?
  • 2.3.3 Domestic Prices and World Prices
  • 2.3.4 Time Horizons
  • 2.3.5 The Selection of Food Indices and Food Prices
  • 2.3.6 Trends and Volatility: Different Approaches
  • 2.3.7 Trends and cycles
  • 2.3.8 Shorter-term Variations
  • 2.3.9 Expected and Historical Volatility
  • 2.3.10 Scaling the Shocks
  • 2.4 Conclusions
  • References
  • 3 Drivers and Triggers of International Food Price Spikes and Volatility
  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Conceptual Framework
  • 3.3 Estimation Methods
  • 3.4 Data
  • 3.5 Results and Discussion.
  • 3.5.1 Determinants of Food Price Spikes
  • 3.5.2 Food Price Volatility
  • 3.5.3 Food Price Trigger
  • 3.6 Conclusion
  • References
  • 4 The Effects of Southern Hemisphere Crop Production on Trade, Stocks, and Price Integration
  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 The Model
  • 4.3 Numerical Solution Strategy
  • 4.4 Model Simulations
  • 4.5 Impact of Shifting Production on Trade
  • 4.6 Effects of Shifts in Production on Regional Stocks
  • 4.7 Effects of Shifts in Production on Soybean Price Integration
  • 4.8 Carrying Costs Among Northern and Southern Exporters
  • 4.9 Effects of Production Shifts on Price Variability
  • 4.10 Conclusions
  • References
  • 5 Food Price Changes, Price Insulation, and Their Impacts on Global and Domestic Poverty
  • 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.2 Effects of Food Price Changes on Poverty
  • 5.2.1 Short-Run Effects
  • 5.2.2 Longer-Run Effects
  • 5.3 Policy Responses
  • 5.4 Recent Developments in Poverty Reduction
  • 5.5 Conclusions
  • References
  • 6 Alternative Mechanisms to Reduce Food Price Volatility and Price Spikes: Policy Responses at the Global Level
  • 6.1 Background
  • 6.2 Review of Policies Proposed/Implemented to Reduce Price Volatility Before 2007
  • 6.3 Review of Policies Proposed as a Result of the 2007-2008 and 2010 Food Price Crises
  • 6.3.1 Information
  • 6.3.2 Trade Facilitation
  • 6.3.3 Reserves and Stocks
  • 6.3.4 Financial Instruments
  • 6.3.5 Regulatory Proposals
  • 6.4 Conclusion
  • References
  • 7 Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans
  • 7.1 Introduction
  • 7.2 Related Literature
  • 7.3 Conceptual Framework
  • 7.4 Data
  • 7.5 Econometric Model
  • 7.6 Results
  • 7.6.1 Econometric Results
  • 7.6.1.1 Robustness Checks
  • 7.6.2 Simulation Results
  • 7.7 Conclusions
  • A.1 Appendix
  • References.
  • 8 Food Crisis and Export Taxation: Revisiting the Adverse Effects of Noncooperative Aspect of Trade Policies
  • 8.1 Introduction
  • 8.2 Why Do Countries Implement Export Restrictions?
  • 8.3 To What Extent Does Export Taxation Amplify Food Price Volatility?
  • 8.4 Can Export Restrictions Be Disciplined in the WTO Framework?
  • 8.5 Concluding Remarks: Looking for a Solution
  • References
  • Part III Commodity and Financial Market Linkages
  • 9 Directional Volatility Spillovers Between Agricultural, Crude Oil, Real Estate, and Other Financial Markets
  • 9.1 Introduction
  • 9.2 Previous Empirical Results on Market Linkages
  • 9.2.1 Agricultural-Energy Market Linkages
  • 9.2.2 (Agricultural) Commodity-Financial Market Linkages
  • 9.3 Description of the Methodology and Data
  • 9.3.1 Data
  • 9.3.2 Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decompositions
  • 9.3.3 Volatility Spillover Indices
  • 9.4 Empirical Results
  • 9.4.1 Rolling VAR Estimation and Spillover Index Calculation
  • 9.4.2 Discussion of Results
  • 9.4.2.1 Agricultural: Energy Linkages
  • 9.4.2.2 Commodity: Financial Linkages
  • 9.5 Conclusions
  • References
  • 10 A Roller Coaster Ride: An Empirical Investigation of the Main Drivers of Wheat Price
  • 10.1 Introduction
  • 10.2 Literature Review
  • 10.3 Variables and Data
  • 10.4 Empirical Evidence
  • 10.4.1 Preliminary Unit Root Test
  • 10.4.2 Johansen and Juselius Analysis
  • 10.4.3 Empirical Results
  • 10.4.4 Discussion of Results and implications
  • 10.5 Conclusions
  • Annex
  • References
  • 11 Relative Prices of Food and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities: Evidence for a Panel of Developing Economies
  • 11.1 Introduction
  • 11.2 Methodology
  • 11.2.1 Relative Food Prices at Country Level
  • 11.2.2 Conditional Global Volatility and Its Relation to Country Level Relative Food Prices
  • 11.2.3 Beta Regression.
  • 11.3 Data, Empirical Model, and Estimation
  • 11.3.1 Data
  • 11.3.2 Empirical Model and Estimation
  • 11.3.3 Discussion
  • 11.4 Conclusion
  • Appendix
  • Tables
  • Data Sources
  • References
  • 12 How Strong Do Global Commodity Prices Influence Domestic Food Prices in Developing Countries? A Global Price Transmission and Vulnerability Mapping Analysis
  • 12.1 Introduction
  • 12.2 Existing Work on Price Transmission
  • 12.3 Theoretical Framework
  • 12.4 Empirical Model
  • 12.5 Data
  • 12.6 Results
  • 12.6.1 Transmission from the FAO Food Price Index
  • 12.6.2 Vulnerability Mapping: How Many Poor People Are Affected by Global Price Changes?
  • 12.6.3 Pass-Through and Equilibrium Effects
  • 12.6.4 Robustness Checks
  • 12.6.4.1 Significance Levels
  • 12.6.4.2 CPI-Deflated Food Prices
  • 12.6.4.3 OLS Versus Newey-West
  • 12.7 Conclusions
  • Appendix
  • International Reference Prices and Price Indices
  • Robustness Checks for Transmission to Grain Price Index
  • Price Transmission from Individual Grain Prices
  • References
  • 13 Transmission of Food Price Volatility from International to Domestic Markets: Evidence from Africa, Latin America, and South Asia
  • 13.1 Introduction
  • 13.2 Previous Research on Transmission of Prices and Volatility
  • 13.3 Methodology
  • 13.4 Data
  • 13.5 Results
  • 13.6 Discussion
  • 13.7 Conclusions
  • Appendix
  • References
  • Part IV National and Regional Responses to Food Price Volatility
  • 14 India's Food Security Policies in the Wake of Global Food Price Volatility
  • Abbreviations
  • 14.1 Backdrop
  • 14.2 Global Rice and Wheat Markets and India
  • 14.3 Rice and Wheat Policy: Trade and Domestic
  • 14.3.1 Grain Policy: Trade
  • 14.3.2 The 2007-2008 Global Price Hikes and India's Response
  • 14.3.3 Impact of Global Prices on Domestic Prices
  • 14.3.4 Indian Rice and Wheat Competitiveness
  • 14.3.5 Grain Policy: Domestic.
  • 14.3.6 National Food Security Mission 2007-2008
  • 14.3.7 National Food Security Act, 2013
  • 14.3.8 Second Green Revolution
  • 14.4 Lessons Learned and the Way Forward
  • Appendix
  • References
  • Data Sources
  • 15 The Costs and Benefits of Regional Cooperation on Grain Reserves: The Case of ECOWAS
  • 15.1 Introduction
  • 15.2 Food Reserves, Trade, and Benefits of Regional Cooperation
  • 15.3 Assessment of the Costs and Benefits of Cooperation
  • 15.4 Optimal Stocks and Stocking Rule
  • 15.4.1 Emergency Reserve
  • 15.4.2 Stabilization Reserve
  • 15.5 Results
  • 15.5.1 Supply Patterns in West Africa
  • 15.5.2 Emergency Reserve
  • 15.5.2.1 Emergency Reserve Without Intra-regional Trade
  • 15.5.3 Emergency Reserve with Intra-Regional Trade
  • 15.5.4 Stabilization Reserve
  • 15.6 Conclusion
  • Appendix
  • References
  • 16 Regional Trade and Volatility in Staple Food Markets in Africa
  • 16.1 Introduction
  • 16.2 Regional Potential for the Stabilization of Domestic Food Markets Through Trade
  • 16.3 The Scope for Specialization and Regional Trade Expansion in Agriculture
  • 16.4 The Outlook for Regional Cross-Border Trade and Market Volatility Under Alternative Scenarios
  • 16.4.1 The Regional Trade Simulation Model
  • 16.4.2 Intra-trade Simulation Results
  • 16.4.3 Regional Market Volatility Under Alternative Policy Scenarios
  • 16.5 Conclusions
  • Appendix
  • References
  • 17 ASEAN Food Reserve and Trade: Review and Prospect
  • 17.1 Introduction
  • 17.2 ASEAN Food Market Structure
  • 17.3 National Food Reserves in Southeast Asia
  • 17.3.1 Benefits and Costs of National Reserves
  • 17.4 Regional Food Reserve Cooperation
  • 17.4.1 The Benefits and Costs of Regional Reserves
  • 17.5 WTO Rules on Public Reserve
  • 17.6 Conclusion and Policy Implication
  • Appendix
  • References.
  • 18 When Do Prices Matter Most? Rice, Wheat, and Corn Supply Response in China.

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