Cover Image

Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin.

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: The BACC II Author Team, The Bacc.
Format: eBook
Language:English
Published: Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2015.
Edition:1st ed.
Series:Regional Climate Studies
Subjects:
Electronic books.
Online Access:Click to View
Table of Contents:
  • Intro
  • Preface
  • Acknowledgments
  • Contents
  • The BACC II Author Team
  • Abbreviations and Acronyms
  • 1 Introduction and Summary
  • Abstract
  • 1.1 Overview
  • 1.1.1 Background
  • 1.1.2 Overall Summary
  • 1.1.3 The BACC Process
  • 1.1.4 Important Terminology
  • 1.1.5 Annexes
  • 1.2 Executive Summary
  • 1.2.1 Long-term Climate Change: From the Holocene to the Little Ice Age
  • 1.2.2 Recent Climate Change: The Past 200 Years
  • 1.2.2.1 Recent Changes in the Atmosphere
  • 1.2.2.2 Recent Changes in Hydrology and the Terrestrial Cryosphere
  • 1.2.2.3 Recent Changes in Baltic Sea Hydrography
  • 1.2.3 Future Climate Change
  • 1.2.3.1 Models and Methodology
  • 1.2.3.2 Projections of Future Climate Change
  • 1.2.4 Environmental Impacts of Climate Change
  • 1.2.4.1 Atmospheric Chemistry
  • 1.2.4.2 Coastal Ecosystems, Birds, and Forests
  • 1.2.4.3 Freshwater Biogeochemistry
  • 1.2.4.4 Marine Biogeochemistry
  • 1.2.4.5 Marine Ecosystems
  • 1.2.4.6 Coastal Erosion and Coastline Changes
  • 1.2.5 Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change
  • 1.2.5.1 Forestry and Agriculture
  • 1.2.5.2 Urban Complexes
  • 1.2.6 Drivers of Regional Climate Change: Detecting Anthropogenic Change and Attributing Plausible Causes
  • 1.2.6.1 Regional Evidence of Global Warming
  • 1.2.6.2 Aerosols
  • 1.2.6.3 Land Cover
  • References
  • Part ILong-term Climate Change
  • 2 Climate Change During the Holocene (Past 12,000 Years)
  • Abstract
  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Causes of Climate Variability During the Holocene
  • 2.2.1 External Climate Forcing
  • 2.2.1.1 Astronomical Conditions
  • 2.2.1.2 Solar Activity
  • 2.2.1.3 Volcanic Eruptions
  • 2.2.1.4 Greenhouse Gases
  • 2.2.2 Climate Modelling of the Holocene in the Baltic Sea Basin
  • 2.3 Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions Over the Holocene
  • 2.3.1 Sources of Palaeoclimatic Data
  • 2.3.2 Methodology for Palaeoclimatic Reconstructions.
  • 2.4 Climate Variability During the Holocene Relevant for the Baltic Sea Basin
  • 2.4.1 Climate at the Boundary of the Younger Dryas/Holocene
  • 2.4.2 Early Holocene Oscillations
  • 2.4.3 The `8.2 ka Cold Event'
  • 2.4.4 The Holocene Thermal Maximum
  • 2.4.5 Late Holocene Cooling
  • 2.5 Conclusion
  • References
  • 3 The Historical Time Frame (Past 1000 Years)
  • Abstract
  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Data Sources and Methodology
  • 3.3 General Features of the Millennial Climate
  • 3.4 The Medieval Warm Period (MWP 900
  • 1350)
  • 3.5 The Transitional Period (TP 1350
  • 1550)
  • 3.6 The Little Ice Age (LIA 1550
  • 1850)
  • 3.7 Conclusion
  • References
  • Part IIRecent Climate Change (Past 200 Years)
  • 4 Recent Change
  • -Atmosphere
  • Abstract
  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Large-Scale Circulation Patterns
  • 4.2.1 Circulation Changes in Recent Decades
  • 4.2.2 Long-Term Circulation Changes
  • 4.2.3 NAO and Blocking
  • 4.2.4 Distant Controls of Circulation Changes
  • 4.2.5 Controls of the NAO
  • 4.2.6 Circulation Changes in Contrast to Global Warming
  • 4.3 Surface Pressure and Winds
  • 4.3.1 Wind Climate in Recent Decades
  • 4.3.2 Long-Term Wind Climate
  • 4.3.3 Long-Term Trends Versus Decadal Variability
  • 4.3.4 Potential Inconsistencies in Long-Term Trends
  • 4.4 Surface Air Temperature
  • 4.4.1 Long-term Temperature Climate
  • 4.4.2 Temperature Trends in Recent Decades
  • 4.4.3 Daily Cycle and Seasonality
  • 4.4.4 Temperature Extremes
  • 4.5 Precipitation
  • 4.5.1 Long-Term Precipitation Climate
  • 4.5.2 Precipitation Climate in Recent Decades
  • 4.5.3 Precipitation Extremes
  • 4.6 Cloudiness and Solar Radiation
  • 4.6.1 Cloudiness
  • 4.6.2 Sunshine Duration and Solar Radiation
  • 4.7 Conclusion
  • References
  • 5 Recent Change
  • -River Run-off and Ice Cover
  • Abstract
  • 5.1 Introduction
  • 5.1.1 General Drainage Characteristics of the Baltic Sea Basin.
  • 5.2 Basin-scale Change in Run-off Patterns
  • 5.3 Regional and Seasonal Variations
  • 5.3.1 Sub-basin-scale Changes
  • 5.3.2 Regional Discharge Patterns by Country
  • 5.3.2.1 Estonia
  • 5.3.2.2 Finland
  • 5.3.2.3 Latvia
  • 5.3.2.4 Lithuania
  • 5.3.2.5 Poland
  • 5.3.2.6 Russia
  • 5.3.2.7 Sweden
  • 5.4 River Ice Regime
  • 5.5 Conclusion
  • References
  • 6 Recent Change
  • -Terrestrial Cryosphere
  • Abstract
  • 6.1 Introduction
  • 6.2 Recent and Present Change in Seasonal Snow Cover
  • 6.2.1 Snow Cover Formation, Duration and Melt
  • 6.2.2 Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent
  • 6.2.3 Snow Cover Extent
  • 6.2.4 Snow Structure and Properties
  • 6.2.5 Extreme Events
  • 6.3 Recent and Present Change in Glacier Extent and Mass Balance
  • 6.4 Recent and Present Change in Frozen Ground
  • 6.4.1 Seasonally Frozen Ground
  • 6.4.2 Permafrost
  • 6.5 Conclusion
  • References
  • 7 Recent Change
  • -Marine Circulation and Stratification
  • Abstract
  • 7.1 Introduction
  • 7.2 Trends and Variations in Water Temperature
  • 7.3 Changes in Salinity, Stratification and Water Exchange
  • 7.4 Circulation and Transport Patterns and Processes
  • 7.4.1 Surface Circulation and Related Processes
  • -Recent Findings
  • 7.4.2 Dynamics in the Bottom Layer
  • 7.4.3 Mixing
  • 7.5 Sensitivity to Changes in Forcing
  • 7.6 Conclusion
  • References
  • 8 Recent Change
  • -Sea Ice
  • Abstract
  • 8.1 Introduction
  • 8.2 Ice Extent
  • 8.3 Ice Duration
  • 8.4 Ice Thickness
  • 8.5 Conclusion
  • References
  • 9 Recent Change
  • -Sea Level and Wind Waves
  • Abstract
  • 9.1 Introduction
  • 9.2 Sea Level Observations
  • 9.2.1 Tide Gauges
  • 9.2.2 Satellite Altimetry and GPS Measurements
  • 9.3 Change in Mean Sea Level
  • 9.3.1 Main Factors Driving Sea Level Change
  • 9.3.1.1 Large-Scale Factors
  • 9.3.1.2 Regional and Local Factors
  • Land Movement
  • Meteorological Influence.
  • 9.3.2 Variations Within the Observational Period (Past 200 Years)
  • 9.3.2.1 Long-Term Trends and Decadal Variations
  • Absolute Sea Level
  • Relative Sea Level
  • 9.3.2.2 Changes in Seasonal Variability
  • 9.3.2.3 Is Sea Level Rise Within the Baltic Sea Accelerating?
  • 9.4 Extreme Sea Levels
  • 9.4.1 Main Factors Affecting Extreme Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea
  • 9.4.2 Statistics and Long-Term Trends in Extreme Sea Levels
  • 9.5 Wind Waves
  • 9.5.1 Instrumental Measurements
  • 9.5.2 Visual Observations
  • 9.5.3 Hindcast Simulations
  • 9.5.3.1 Long-Term and Extreme Wave Properties
  • 9.5.3.2 Spatio-Temporal Variations
  • 9.6 Conclusion
  • References
  • Part IIIFuture Climate Change
  • 10 Projected Change
  • -Models and Methodology
  • Abstract
  • 10.1 Introduction
  • 10.2 Dynamical Downscaling
  • 10.2.1 Methodology for Dynamical Downscaling
  • 10.2.2 Performance of RCMs in Reproducing Recent Climate
  • 10.2.3 Developing and Extending RCMs
  • 10.3 Statistical Downscaling
  • 10.3.1 Model Output Statistics
  • 10.3.1.1 Bias Correction Method
  • 10.3.1.2 Perturbation of Observed Data
  • 10.3.2 The`Perfect Prognosis' Approach
  • 10.3.2.1 A Brand of Calibration Strategies
  • 10.3.2.2 Regression Methods
  • 10.3.2.3 Weather Classification Methods
  • 10.3.2.4 Weather Generators
  • 10.3.2.5 Randomisation
  • 10.4 Ensembles, How to Use Them and How to Assess an Error of Projection
  • 10.4.1 Different Types of Ensembles
  • 10.4.2 Are Ensemble Projections Better Than Those Based on Single Climate Projections?
  • 10.4.3 Performance-Based Weighting of Ensembles
  • 10.4.4 Design and Use of GCM-RCM Ensemble Regional Climate Projections
  • 10.5 Validation Techniques
  • 10.5.1 Validation Data
  • 10.5.2 Validation Indices
  • 10.5.3 Validation Measures
  • 10.5.4 Measures for Distribution-Wise Validation
  • 10.5.5 Measures for Eventwise Validation.
  • 10.5.6 Validation in a Climate Change Context
  • 10.6 Skill of Downscaling Methods
  • 10.7 Added Value of Dynamical Downscaling
  • 10.8 Downscaling in the Context of Climate Change Impact Studies
  • 10.9 Conclusion
  • References
  • 11 Projected Change
  • -Atmosphere
  • Abstract
  • 11.1 Introduction
  • 11.2 Emission Scenarios
  • 11.3 Global Climate Models
  • 11.4 Regional Climate Models
  • 11.5 Temperature
  • 11.6 Precipitation
  • 11.7 Wind
  • 11.8 Snow
  • 11.9 Statistical Downscaling
  • 11.10 Conclusion
  • References
  • 12 Projected Change
  • -Hydrology
  • Abstract
  • 12.1 Introduction
  • 12.2 Country-Specific Projections
  • 12.2.1 Belarus
  • 12.2.2 Denmark
  • 12.2.3 Estonia
  • 12.2.4 Finland
  • 12.2.5 Germany
  • 12.2.6 Latvia
  • 12.2.7 Lithuania
  • 12.2.8 Norway
  • 12.2.9 Poland
  • 12.2.10 Russia
  • 12.2.11 Sweden
  • 12.3 Conclusion
  • References
  • 13 Projected Change
  • -Marine Physics
  • Abstract
  • 13.1 Introduction
  • 13.2 Water Temperature
  • 13.3 Salinity
  • 13.4 Sea Ice
  • 13.5 Storm Surges
  • 13.6 Wind Waves
  • 13.7 Conclusion
  • References
  • 14 Projected Change
  • -Sea Level
  • Abstract
  • 14.1 Introduction
  • 14.2 Sea-level Budget
  • 14.3 Steric Expansion
  • 14.4 Geoid Changes
  • 14.5 Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps
  • 14.6 Greenland Ice Sheet
  • 14.7 Antarctic Ice Sheet
  • 14.8 Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
  • 14.9 The Compiled Budget
  • 14.10 Conclusion
  • References
  • Part IVEnvironmental Impacts of Climate Change
  • 15 Environmental Impacts
  • -Atmospheric Chemistry
  • Abstract
  • 15.1 Introduction
  • 15.2 Emissions
  • 15.2.1 Land-Based Sources
  • 15.2.2 Shipping
  • 15.2.2.1 Historical Perspective
  • 15.2.2.2 Recent Developments
  • 15.2.2.3 Future Projections
  • 15.2.3 Land and Sea Emissions
  • -Impact of Climate Change
  • 15.3 Observed Concentrations and Deposition
  • 15.3.1 Sulphur and Nitrogen
  • 15.3.2 Ozone.
  • 15.4 Modelled Concentrations and Deposition.

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