Table of Contents: Demystifying Climate Models :

Demystifying Climate Models : A Users Guide to Earth System Models.

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Gettelman, Andrew.
Other Authors:	Rood, Richard B.
Format:	eBook
Language:	English
Published:	Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2016.
Edition:	1st ed.
Series:	Earth Systems Data and Models Series
Subjects:	Electronic books.
Online Access:	Click to View

Table of Contents:

Intro
Acknowledgments
Contents
About the Authors
Introduction
Part I Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts
1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling
1.1 What Is Climate?
1.2 What Is a Model?
1.3 Uncertainty
1.3.1 Model Uncertainty
1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty
1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty
1.3.4 Total Uncertainty
1.4 Summary
2 Components of the Climate System
2.1 Components of the Earth System
2.1.1 The Atmosphere
2.1.2 The Ocean and Sea Ice
2.1.3 Terrestrial Systems
2.2 Timescales and Interactions
2.3 Summary
3 Climate Change and Global Warming
3.1 Coupling of the Pieces
3.2 Forcing the Climate System
3.3 Climate History
3.4 Understanding Where the Energy Goes
3.5 Summary
4 Essence of a Climate Model
4.1 Scientific Principles in Climate Models
4.2 Basic Formulation and Constraints
4.2.1 Finite Pieces
4.2.2 Processes
4.2.3 Marching Forward in Time
4.2.4 Examples of Finite Element Models
4.3 Coupled Models
4.4 A Brief History of Climate Models
4.5 Computational Aspects of Climate Modeling
4.5.1 The Computer Program
4.5.2 Running a Model
4.6 Summary
Part II Model Mechanics
5 Simulating the Atmosphere
5.1 Role of the Atmosphere in Climate
5.2 Types of Atmospheric Models
5.3 General Circulation
5.4 Parts of an Atmosphere Model
5.4.1 Clouds
5.4.2 Radiative Energy
5.4.3 Chemistry
5.5 Weather Models Versus Climate Models
5.6 Challenges for Atmospheric Models
5.6.1 Uncertain and Unknown Processes
5.6.2 Scales
5.6.3 Feedbacks
5.6.4 Cloud Feedback
5.7 Applications: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones
5.8 Summary
6 Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice
6.1 Understanding the Ocean
6.1.1 Structure of the Ocean
6.1.2 Forcing of the Ocean
6.2 "Limited" Ocean Models.
6.3 Ocean General Circulation Models
6.3.1 Topography and Grids
6.3.2 Deep Ocean
6.3.3 Eddies in the Ocean
6.3.4 Surface Ocean
6.3.5 Structure of an Ocean Model
6.3.6 Ocean Versus Atmosphere Models
6.4 Sea-Ice Modeling
6.5 The Ocean Carbon Cycle
6.6 Challenges
6.6.1 Challenges in Ocean Modeling
6.6.2 Challenges in Sea Ice Modeling
6.7 Applications: Sea-Level Rise, Norfolk, Virginia
6.8 Summary
7 Simulating Terrestrial Systems
7.1 Role of the Land Surface in Climate
7.1.1 Precipitation and the Water Cycle
7.1.2 Vegetation
7.1.3 Ice and Snow
7.1.4 Human Impacts
7.2 Building a Land Surface Simulation
7.2.1 Evolution of a Terrestrial System Model
7.2.2 Biogeophysics: Surface Fluxes and Heat
7.2.3 Biogeophysics: Hydrology
7.2.4 Ecosystem Dynamics (Vegetation and Land Cover/Use Change)
7.2.5 Summary: Structure of a Land Model
7.3 Biogeochemistry: Carbon and Other Nutrient Cycles
7.4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions
7.5 Land Ice
7.6 Humans
7.7 Integrated Assessment Models
7.8 Challenges in Terrestrial System Modeling
7.8.1 Ice Sheet Modeling
7.8.2 Surface Albedo Feedback
7.8.3 Carbon Feedback
7.9 Applications: Wolf and Moose Ecosystem, Isle Royale National Park
7.10 Summary
8 Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity
8.1 Types of Coupled Models
8.1.1 Regional Models
8.1.2 Statistical Models and Downscaling
8.1.3 Integrated Assessment Models
8.2 Coupling Models Together: Common Threads
8.3 Key Interactions in Climate Models
8.3.1 Intermixing of the Feedback Loops
8.3.2 Water Feedbacks
8.3.3 Albedo Feedbacks
8.3.4 Ocean Feedbacks
8.3.5 Sea-Level Change
8.4 Coupled Modes of Climate Variability
8.4.1 Tropical Cyclones
8.4.2 Monsoons
8.4.3 El Niño
8.4.4 Precipitation and the Land Surface.
8.4.5 Carbon Cycle and Climate
8.5 Challenges
8.6 Applications: Integrated Assessment of Water Resources
8.7 Summary
Part III Using Models
9 Model Evaluation
9.1 Evaluation Versus Validation
9.1.1 Evaluation and Missing Information
9.1.2 Observations
9.1.3 Model Improvement
9.2 Climate Model Evaluation
9.2.1 Types of Comparisons
9.2.2 Model Simulations
9.2.3 Using Model Evaluation to Guide Further Observations
9.3 Predicting the Future: Forecasts Versus Projections
9.3.1 Forecasts
9.3.2 Projections
9.4 Applications of Climate Model Evaluation: Ozone Assessment
9.5 Summary
10 Predictability
10.1 Knowledge and Key Uncertainties
10.1.1 Physics of the System
10.1.2 Variability
10.1.3 Sensitivity to Changes
10.2 Types of Uncertainty and Timescales
10.2.1 Predicting the Near Term: Initial Condition Uncertainty
10.2.2 Predicting the Next 30-50 Years: Scenario Uncertainty
10.2.3 Predicting the Long Term: Model Uncertainty Versus Scenario Uncertainty
10.3 Ensembles: Multiple Models and Simulations
10.4 Applications: Developing and Using Scenarios
10.5 Summary
11 Results of Current Models
11.1 Organization of Climate Model Results
11.2 Prediction and Uncertainty
11.2.1 Goals of Prediction
11.2.2 Uncertainty
11.2.3 Why Models?
11.3 What Is the Confidence in Predictions?
11.3.1 Confident Predictions
11.3.1.1 Temperature
11.3.1.2 Precipitation
11.3.2 Uncertain Predictions: Where to Be Cautious
11.3.3 Bad Predictions
11.3.4 How Do We Predict Extreme Events?
11.4 Climate Impacts and Extremes
11.4.1 Tropical Cyclones
11.4.2 Stream Flow and Extreme Events
11.4.3 Electricity Demand and Extreme Events
11.5 Application: Climate Model Impacts in Colorado
11.6 Summary.
12 Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners
12.1 Knowledge Systems
12.2 Interpretation and Translation
12.2.1 Barriers to the Use of Climate Model Projections
12.2.2 Downscaled Datasets
12.2.3 Climate Assessments
12.2.4 Expert Analysis
12.3 Uncertainty
12.3.1 Ensembles
12.3.2 Uncertainty in Assessment Reports
12.4 Framing Uncertainty
12.5 Summary
13 Summary and Final Thoughts
13.1 What Is Climate?
13.2 Key Features of a Climate Model
13.3 Components of the Climate System
13.3.1 The Atmosphere
13.3.2 The Ocean
13.3.3 Terrestrial Systems
13.3.4 Coupled Components
13.4 Evaluation and Uncertainty
13.4.1 Evaluation
13.4.2 Uncertainty
13.5 What We Know (and Do not Know)
13.6 The Future of Climate Modeling
13.6.1 Increasing Resolution
13.6.2 New and Improved Processes
13.6.3 Challenges
13.7 Final Thoughts
Climate Modeling Text Glossary
Index.

Demystifying Climate Models : A Users Guide to Earth System Models.

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